Golden Globe film predictions: ‘Manchester by the Sea’ leads close drama race against ‘Moonlight’

“La La Land” is the Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture, but since it competes over in the comedy/musical categories at the Golden Globes that leaves the door open for a dramatic film to take a turn in the winner’s circle. It looks like that film will be “Manchester by the Sea,” which we forecast will be awarded Best Film Drama by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

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These official odds are derived from the predictions of leading film Experts, Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Golden Globe TV nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Golden Globe TV noms, and hundreds of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

“Manchester by the Sea” is an intimate indie drama about a despondent man who must return to his hometown in Massachusetts to care for his nephew after a family tragedy. It gets leading 9/4 odds of winning Best Film Drama, while star Casey Affleck is the 2/1 frontrunner for Best Film Drama Actor. The film is also out front for Best Screenplay (9/5 odds), which combines all film comedies, musicals and dramas. In addition the film is expected to earn noms for supporting performers Lucas Hedges and Michelle Williams.

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“Manchester” will hold off another indie critics’ darling, “Moonlight,” which ranks second for Best Film with 7/2 odds. It will also receive nominations for Best Director (Barry Jenkins), Best Screenplay and Best Film Supporting Actress (Naomie Harris), while Mahershala Ali  gets leading 12/5 odds to win Best Film Supporting Actor.

Also a strong contender is “Silence” with 5/1 odds for Best Film. It’s also forecast to receive nominations for director Martin Scorsese and supporting actor Liam Neeson.

Next with 13/2 odds is “Fences,” which according to our predictions will win Best Film Supporting Actress (Viola Davis, 2/1 odds) in addition to nominations for Best Screenplay and for Denzel Washington as both lead actor and director. And rounding out our Best Film predictions is “Lion” with 16/1 odds; it has two other predicted nominations, for supporting stars Dev Patel and Nicole Kidman.

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Find out who else we’re betting on below. The predicted winners are indicated in gold, and potential spoilers are in italics.

BEST FILM DRAMA
“Manchester by the Sea” — 9/4
“Moonlight” — 7/2
“Silence” — 5/1
“Fences” — 13/2
“Lion” — 16/1

Spoilers: “Jackie” (18/1); “Hacksaw Ridge” (50/1); “Loving” (66/1)

BEST FILM DRAMA ACTOR
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” — 2/1
Denzel Washington, “Fences” — 11/4
Joel Edgerton, “Loving” — 13/2
Tom Hanks, “Sully” — 7/1
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” — 14/1

Spoilers: Andrew Garfield, “Silence” (28/1); Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nocturnal Animals” (40/1)

BEST FILM DRAMA ACTRESS
Natalie Portman, “Jackie” — 13/8
Amy Adams, “Arrival” — 9/2
Ruth Negga, “Loving” — 5/1
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” — 10/1
Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane” — 14/1

Spoilers: Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” (18/1); Emily Blunt, “The Girl on the Train” (33/1)

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BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” — 12/5
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” — 4/1
Liam Neeson, “Silence” — 11/2
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” — 6/1
Dev Patel, “Lion” — 15/2

Spoilers: Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” (20/1); Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water” (50/1)

BEST FILM SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Fences” — 2/1
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” — 10/3
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” — 5/1
Nicole Kidman, “Lion” — 13/2
Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women” — 16/1

Spoilers: Kristen Stewart, “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (66/1); Felicity Jones, “A Monster Calls” (66/1); Janelle Monae, “Hidden Figures” (80/1)

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” — 9/5
Martin Scorsese, “Silence” — 11/2
Denzel Washington, “Fences” — 6/1
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” — 6/1
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” — 13/2

Spoilers: Pablo Larrain, “Jackie” (33/1); Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” (50/1)

BEST SCREENPLAY
“Manchester by the Sea” — 9/5
“La La Land” — 4/1
“Moonlight” — 5/1
“Fences” — 9/1
“Loving” — 14/1

Spoilers: “Nocturnal Animals” (28/1); “Silence” (33/1); “Lion” (40/1)

Make your Golden Globe predictions now; change them till Dec. 12

Make your Golden Globes Awards picks now and tell industry insiders which films and performers you have out front to win on January 8. You can keep changing them until just before nominations are announced on December 12 at 5 am PT/8 am ET. Be sure to make your predictions right here. You’ll compete for a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s nominees). Read our contest rules.

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