Golden Globe predictions: Are ‘Spotlight,’ Leonardo DiCaprio & Brie Larson unbeatable?

spotlight dicaprio larson

Are this year’s Golden Globes for dramatic films a foregone conclusion? Quite possibly, judging from the predictions of our 16 Experts, the film journalists we’ve polled from outlets including Entertainment Weekly , Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB.

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All but one of our experts is predicting “Spotlight” will win Best Drama Picture, giving it 2/13 odds: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

Jack Mathews (Gold Derby) is the lone holdout who says “Mad Max: Fury Road” will win the top prize, giving that film 12/1 odds.

Our Editors, the in-house staff that covers awards year-round for Gold Derby, unanimously agree that “Spotlight” will prevail. Meanwhile, 18 of our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Globe winners, also say “Spotlight,” though three predict an upset for “Mad Max” and one apiece are backing “Carol” and “The Revenant.”

Lastly, out of more than 1,000 total Users who have contributed their predictions, the vast majority are betting on “Spotlight.”

The story is no different in the lead acting races. Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”) is the overwhelming frontrunner to win Best Drama Actor. All 16 experts favor him to win, giving him 1/10 odds. All six editors, 22 of our Top 24 Users, and the vast majority of all users agree with that.

DiCaprio is hoping “The Revenant” will finally be his ticket to Oscar, but it would actually be his third Golden Globe, following victories for “The Aviator” (2004) and “The Wolf of Wall Street” (2013).

Our Experts aren’t unanimous in the race for Best Drama Actress, but it’s close. All but three forecast a victory for Brie Larson (“Room“), giving her 1/3 odds. Michael Musto and Peter Travers predict an upset victory for Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn“), giving her 13/2 odds. And Thelma Adams is going out on a limb for Rooney Mara (“Carol”), giving her 12/1 odds.

Our editors unanimously predict Larson, as do most of our users by far and 22 of our Top 24 Users.

Top 10 Oscars underdogs: Michael B. Jordan, Charlize Theron, Harrison Ford …

Make your Golden Globe predictions starting with Best Drama Picture to the right or at the bottom of this post.

You’ll compete to win our contest prize for best picks — a $100 Amazon gift certificate — as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Golden Globe winners). Be sure to read our contest rules.

As some of our Users turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, it’s important that you give us your predictions. Your picks influence our Users racetrack odds, which also factor into our official combined odds.

Photo Credits: “Spotlight” by Open Road Films, “The Revenant” by Moviestore/REX, “Room” by A24

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