Grammy predictions: Is Kendrick Lamar a lock for Best Rap Album?

kendrick lamar grammy best rap album to pimp a butterfly

Kendrick Lamar is the only rap artist who contends for Album of the Year, for his sophomore effort “To Pimp a Butterfly,” which gives him a strong advantage to win Best Rap Album. That should have helped him in 2013 too, when he was nominated in both categories for his acclaimed debut “Good Kid, M.A.A.D City,” but that was a rare instance when two rap albums competed for Album of the Year: “Good Kid” and Macklemore & Ryan Lewis‘s “The Heist.” Unfortunately for Lamar, the recording academy picked “The Heist” for Rap Album instead.

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The good news for Lamar is that he’s the only artist with that distinction this time, so history is decidedly on his side. Since this category was created in 1995, whenever rap has competed for Album of the Year, it has won Best Rap Album every single time. Besides Lamar’s “Good Kid,” only one other rap album has competed in both races and lost: Nelly‘s “Nellyville” (2002); just like Lamar, he lost to another Album of the Year contender, Eminem‘s “The Eminem Show.”

In all, 11 Album of the Year nominees have prevailed as Best Rap Album:

1996: “The Score,” The Fugees
2000: “The Marshall Mathers LP,” Eminem
2001: “Stankonia,” OutKast
2002: “The Eminem Show,” Eminem
2003: “Speakerboxxx/The Love Below,” OutKast
2004: “The College Dropout,” Kanye West
2005: “Late Registration,” Kanye West
2007: “Graduation,” Kanye West
2008: “Tha Carter III,” Lil Wayne
2010: “Recovery,” Eminem
2013: “The Heist,” Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Can anyone buck this trend and pull off an upset?

Probably not. We’ve polled nine Expert journalists for their Grammy picks, and all of them are predicting Lamar, giving him overwhelming 1/10 odds: Phil Gallo, Glenn Gamboa (Newsday), Tim Gray (Variety), Edna Gundersen, Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lyndsey Parker (Yahoo Music), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby) and Chris Willman.

On top of that, our Editors, we who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, are also unanimous. All six of us think Lamar has it in the bag: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, O’Neil, Sheehan and myself.

Even our Top 24 Users, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Grammy winners, are in agreement. All 19 of those who have chimed in so far predict Lamar to win.

None of our experts, editors, or top users are predicting any of Lamar’s rivals: “The Pinkprint” by Nicki Minaj, “Compton” by Dr. Dre, “If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late” by Drake or “2014 Forest Hills Drive” by J. Cole. Might we be underestimating any of them?

Drake is nominated for the fourth time and is the only nominee who has won this category before as an artist, for “Take Care” in 2012. Drake has four total nominations this year, a far cry from Lamar’s whopping 11 bids, but it nevertheless makes Drake one of this year’s most nominated artists.

Also hoping to surprise, as well as make history, is Minaj. If she prevails it would be the first win for a female solo artist. To date only one woman has won this category: Lauryn Hill as a member of the Fugees for “The Score.” Minaj has one past nomination here, for “Pink Friday” in 2011, and three total nominations this year.

The Grammys often like to reward veterans, so don’t rule out Dr. Dre, whose “Compton” was inspired by the film “Straight Outta Compton” about Dre’s rise to fame with the group N.W.A. The prominence of the film can’t hurt his chances here, and he’s already a five time Grammy-winner, including a past victory in this race as a producer of Eminem’s “The Marshall Mathers LP.” Perhaps surprising given his lengthy career, this is only his third solo album.

J. Cole’s bid here is his first in the category. Like Minaj he’s nominated three times this year.

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Who do you think will win?

Make your Grammy predictions beginning with Best Rap Album to the right or below. Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes.

You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Grammy winners). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.

Kendrick Lamar photo credit: NBC

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