Grammy predictions: Adele (‘Hello’) will be only 2nd woman to win Record of the Year twice as solo artist

It has been five years since Adele won Record of the Year at the Grammy Awards for “Rolling in the Deep” in 2011. She’s the top contender in our predictions to win it again this year for “Hello,” the lead single from her chart-topping third album, “25.” Several other artists have won the award multiple times, but she’d be just the second female artist to win solo.

Find out how Adele will do at the Grammys this year

Paul Simon currently holds the record for the most Record of the Year victories with three: twice as a member of Simon and Garfunkel (“Mrs. Robinson” in 1968, “Bridge over Troubled Water” in 1970), and once as a solo artist (“Graceland” in 1987). Meanwhile, eight other artists have won the award twice:

Henry Mancini: “Moon River” (1961) and “Days of Wine and Roses” (1963)

The 5th Dimension: “Up, Up and Away” (1967) and “Aquarius/Let the Sunshine In” (1969)

Art Garfunkel (with Simon and Garfunkel): “Mrs. Robinson” (1968) and “Bridge Over Troubled Water” (1970)

Roberta Flack: “The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face” (1972) and “Killing Me Softly with His Song” (1973)

Eric Clapton: “Tears in Heaven” (1992) and “Change the World” (1996)

U2: “Beautiful Day” (2000) and “Walk On” (2001)

Norah Jones: “Don’t Know Why” (2002) and “Here We Go Again” (2004, with Ray Charles)

Mark Ronson: “Rehab” (2007, with Amy Winehouse) and “Uptown Funk” (2015, with Bruno Mars)

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In all, four women have won Record of the Year multiple times: Roberta Flack, Norah Jones and 5th Dimension members Florence LaRue and Marilyn McCoo. LaRue and McCoo won as members of a group, and Jones won her second prize in a duet with Ray Charles, so Flack is the only woman with multiple victories as a solo artist. Will Adele achieve the same feat?

As of this writing Adele gets leading 17/10 odds based on our latest rankings, which are based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Grammy nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine predictions from the last two years, and All Users who make up the largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.

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It appears that Adele’s closest threat will be the woman who defeated her at the recent MTV Video Music Awards: Beyonce, whose “Formation” ranks second with 10/3 odds. She’s been nominated for Record of the Year four times before (three times as a solo artist and once with Destiny’s Child), but has yet to win it. In fact, her only win in the general field to date was Song of the Year for “Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)” (2009).

Ranked third with 4/1 odds is “Cheap Thrills” by Sia featuring Sean Paul. Sia was nominated in this category once before, for “Chandelier” (2014), while Paul is aiming for his first nomination.

Next in line with 11/2 odds is “Work” by Rihanna featuring Drake, which spent nine weeks on top of Billboard’s Hot 100 singles chart this year. It would be the third nomination for Rihanna and the first for Drake.

Grammy predictions: Adele (’25’) takes early lead against Beyonce (‘Lemonade’) for Album of the Year

Rounding out our top five is “Sorry” by Justin Bieber, who would be a first-time nominee in this category. And it would be just his second bid in the general field overall after he contended for Best New Artist in 2010.

Check out the current top 10 contenders below. Click on the chart to be taken to our complete odds.


Make your Grammy predictions now; change them till Dec. 6

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts as often as you like before nominations are announced on Dec. 6.  Just click “Save” when you’ve settled on your choices. You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, bragging rights and a place of honor on our leaderboard. Our racetrack odds change as you make your predictions, just as they do when you bet on the Emmys, Oscars, Golden Globes and more. Be sure to read our contest rules and sound off on the Grammy race in our music forum.

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