Indie Spirit Awards predictions: Jennifer Jason Leigh & Mya Taylor in close race for Supporting Actress

anomalisa jennifer jason leigh tangerine mya taylor independent spirit awards supporting female

The last two Independent Spirit Award winners for Best Supporting Actress went on to win the Oscar (Lupita Nyongo for “12 Years a Slave” in 2013, Patricia Arquette for “Boyhood,” 2014). This year there is one Oscar nominee in the running, Jennifer Jason Leigh, but in an unusual twist she’s nominated for two different films.

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At the Oscars Leigh contends as a prisoner bound for execution in “The Hateful Eight.” But at the Spirit Awards she’s nominated for her voice-acting role in “Anomalisa” as Lisa, whose voice sounds unique to a man who can’t seem to tell anyone else’s apart. Leigh is the frontrunner to win according to the combined predictions of Expert film journalists we’ve polled, Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Spirit winners and over 1,000 total Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.

Out of 13 experts making Spirit predictions, nine of them favor Leigh, giving her 8/15 odds: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

But Leigh is far from a lock. She faces close competition from Mya Taylor (“Tangerine“), who is predicted by the other four experts, giving her 23/10 odds: Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone).

Our editors are even more split. Three of us are backing Leigh: Chris Beachum, O’Neil and myself. Meanwhile, Marcus Dixon and Sheehan are betting on Taylor, and Rob Licuria is going out on a limb in favor of Cynthia Nixon (“James White“).

Our Top 24 Users are similarly divided between those three nominees. Thirteen of them predict Leigh, while nine say it will be Taylor and two are betting on Nixon.

None of our experts, editors or top users are predicting the remaining two nominees in the category: Marin Ireland (“Glass Chin“) or Robin Bartlett (“H.“).

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Who do you think will win?

Make your Spirit Award predictions beginning with Best Supporting Actress to the right or below. Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes.

You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Spirit winners). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.

Photo Credits: “Anomalisa” by Moviestore/REX; “Tangerine” by Magnolia Pictures

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