Indie Spirit Awards predictions: Is Brie Larson (‘Room’) a lock for Best Actress?

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Brie Larson is far and away the frontrunner to win the Best Actress Oscar for “Room,” so it stands to reason that she’ll also win Best Actress at the Independent Spirit Awards. Indeed, four of the last five Spirit champs went on to claim Oscar: Natalie Portman (“Black Swan,” 2010), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook,” 2012), Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine,” 2013) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice,” 2014).

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We’ve polled Expert film journalists, Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Spirit winners and more than 1,000 total Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors. And according to our combined predictions, Larson is a virtual lock.

All 12 experts predicting the Spirit Awards say it will be Larson, giving her 1/10 odds: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Adnan Virk (ESPN) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

Our editors are also unanimous. All six of us predict Larson will continue her awards romp: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, O’Neil, Sheehan and myself.

Our Top 24 Users are very nearly unanimous, but not quite. All but one are predicting Larson to prevail. The lone outlier forecasts an upset for Rooney Mara (“Carol“).

There is reason to believe Mara could upset. While Larson has swept through the awards season, “Carol” was much better received at the Spirit Awards overall, leading with six total nominations including Best Picture and Best Director. Meanwhile, the only other nominations for “Room” are Best First Screenplay and Best Editing. Could Larson be more vulnerable than we think?

Cate Blanchett is also nominated for Best Actress for “Carol,” but none of our experts, editors or top users are predicting her or the other two nominees in this contest: Kitana Kiki Rodriguez (“Tangerine“) or Bel Powley (“Diary of a Teenage Girl“).

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Who do you think will win?

Make your Spirit Award predictions beginning with Best Actress to the right or below. Just log into your Gold Derby account (or you can register for a free account via Facebook, Twitter or Google) and then start casting your votes.

You’ll compete to win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as well as a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year’s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year’s Spirit winners). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Gold Derby readers just like YOU often turn out to be our smartest prognosticators, so it’s important that you give us your predictions. You can continue to update and change your forecasts, just click “Save Predictions” when you’ve settled on your choice.

Photo Credit: “Room” by A24

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