Long before Leonardo DiCaprio was an Oscar winner he was an MTV Movie Award winner. As a younger heartthrob, he won Best Male Performance for "Titanic" (1998) and then again for "The Aviator" (2005). Now he'll win that award again for his Oscar-winning turn in "The Revenant" according to the combined predictions of our Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year's winners and the hundreds of total Users who make up our largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.
Seventeen of our Top 24 are betting on DiCaprio, giving him 8/15 odds. And three of our editors agree: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon and Rob Licuria favor the newly minted Oscar champ. But is he really such a safe bet? Now 41-years-old, he may not appeal to MTV's target demographic the way he used to.
For that matter, DiCaprio has never been a slam dunk at these awards even at the height of his youth popularity. He has only ever won three MTV Movie Awards in his career, spread across 19 years and 19 nominations. He most recent nomination in this category was for "The Wolf of Wall Street" two years ago; he lost to Josh Hutcherson for "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire."
Our other seven top users are betting on Ryan Reynolds ("Deadpool") to upset, giving him 5/2 odds. I'm the only editor who agrees. Reynolds has yet to win an MTV Movie Award in any category, but his film is even fresher in mind than "The Revenant." "Deadpool" opened in February and has since made more than $750 million worldwide.
It appears that this is strictly a two-way race between DiCaprio and Reynolds, since the other four nominees have no support from our editors or top users and scant support from our total users. Among them is Michael B. Jordan, who contends for "Creed"; this is his second nomination following a Breakthrough Performance bid for "Fruitvale Station" two years ago.
Chris Pratt is nominated for "Jurassic World." Including his additional nomination this year for Best Action Performance, Pratt has been nominated for seven MTV Movie Awards in the last two years. He was surprisingly shut out of his five nominations last year for "Guardians of the Galaxy."
Rounding out the category is Will Smith for "Concussion." A long-time MTV favorite, he has won five times out of 17 nominations, including two victories in this race for "Ali" (2002) and "I Am Legend" (2008). We're not expecting him to win this contest, but he has another nomination this year – Best Kiss with Margot Robbie for "Focus" – and he'll also receive the honorary Generation Award.
Make your MTV Movie Awards Awards predictions starting with Best Male Performance to the right or at the bottom of this post.
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Photo credit: 20th Century Fox