The Oscar nominations will be announced this Thursday (January 14). In recent years the Oscars have switched back and forth between feel-good films and hard-hitting exposes for Best Documentary Feature. Two frontrunners this year recall a familiar battle: a story about music ("Amy") vs. a story of Indonesian genocide ("The Look of Silence"). Do YOU think you know what will be nominated?
The top five films we think will be nominated for Best Documentary Feature are below in order of their racetrack odds, with the predicted winner, "Amy," noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 22 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year's Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Our Experts and Users agree on that lineup for Best Documentary Feature. However, our Editors sub in "The Hunting Ground" instead of "Cartel Land," while our Top 24 Users have "The Hunting Ground" predicted instead of "He Named Me Malala."
When it comes to picking the winners, 16 of our 22 experts say "Amy" will prevail: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
Meanwhile, Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily) predict "The Look of Silence." Jack Mathews (Gold Derby) and Brian Truitt (USA Today) opt for "Going Clear." And Keith Simanton (IMDB) backs "He Named Me Malala."
Four of our six editors also say "Amy" will win: Marcus James Dixon, Rob Licuria, Tom O'Neil and Paul Sheehan. Chris Beachum and Daniel Montgomery predict "The Look of Silence."
Also forecasting "Amy" to win are 16 of our Top 24 Users, including Denton Davidson and Cinemateo21, who tied with the highest accuracy (79%) predicting last year's nominations.
What do you think will win Best Documentary Feature? Make your Oscar predictions using the menu to the right or below.
Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Oscar nominations last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.
Photo Credits: "Amy" by Altitude Film Distribution; "The Look of Silence" by Anonymous