In our podcast chat, Michael Musto makes a compelling case for his prediction that “The Revenant” will win the Oscar for Best Picture. He acknowledges that, yes, “it doesn’t have a SAG nomination for ensemble and that kind of film rarely wins. Also, there’s no screenplay nomination and it’s very rare that a film without a screenplay nomination wins Best Picture.”
However, the alternative choice – “Spotlight” – also has problems. “In my opinion, if it won Best Picture, it will only win one other award, which is original screenplay,” he says. “Even people picking ‘Spotlight’ to win are picking Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu to win director. It’s rare that a Best Picture only wins two Oscars. ‘Argo’ – even without the Best Director nomination for Ben Affleck – got three. So three would be the minimum.”
The last film to win Best Picture with only two total Oscars was “The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952). Previously, there were four others: “Rebecca” (1940), “You Can’t Take It with You” (1938), “All Quiet on the Western Front” (1930) and “Wings” (1927). In addition to “Argo,” 12 Best Picture champs snagged just three Oscars, including “12 Years a Slave” (2013) and “Crash” (2005).
See all of Musto’s current predictions here. But beware: “Obviously my choice is going to change 800 times until this actually happens,” he warns slyly. “These are just my picks of the moment.”
See how his predix compare to more than a dozen other experts polled by Gold Derby.