Experts’ Oscars 2017 predictions for Best Picture: ‘La La Land’ expands lead

“La La Land” has expanded its lead in the Oscar race for Best Picture. Sixteen of our 23 Oscar experts derived from major media outlets are now backing Damien Chazelle‘s romance musical (that’s up by one from a week ago as the lone pundit picking “The Birth of a Nation” has switched). The continuing rise of “La La Land” has come at the expense of two other films as well: Kenneth Longergan‘s domestic drama “Manchester by the Sea” and Jeff Nichols‘ docudrama “Loving.” The former, a one-time frontrunner, is down to just two experts while the latter has only one vote. Four experts still favor the chances of “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.”  Click here to see how our experts rank contenders according to likelihood of winning in all top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see other categories.

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Here’s how the Best Picture predictions break down by expert (see individual rankings right here) as well as the most up-to-date odds for each to win:

BEST PICTURE
1. “La La Land” (5/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior),  Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

2. “Manchester by the Sea” (7/1 odds)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB),

3. “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (15/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Musto (Out.com), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

4. “Loving” (10/1 odds)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)

5. “Fences” (10/1 odds)

6. “Moonlight” (12/1 odds)

7. “Lion” (16/1 odds)

8. “The Birth of a Nation” (20/1 odds)

9. “Arrival” (25/1odds)

10. “Silence” (33/1 odds)

Find out what will win at the Oscars this year — Click Here

The pundits still give the edge to Chazelle over Lonergan for Best Director by a wide margin – 16 to three. The other four experts still favor the chances of Ang Lee (“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”) for helming this drama set against the backdrop of the Iraq war; he won for “Brokeback Mountain” (2005) and “Life of Pi” (2012). Rounding out the race are “Moonlight” writer/director Barry Jenkins and Denzel Washington, a two-time Oscar winner for acting [“Glory” (supporting, 1989) and “Training Day” (lead, 2001)] who directs and stars in “Fences.”

“Manchester by the Sea,” an intimate drama about a man who returns home after his brother’s death, still leads two other top Oscar races, according to our experts’ predictions: actor (Casey Affleck) and supporting actress (Michelle Williams). But Lucas Hedges has dropped back to second in supporting actor behind Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”).  See complete rundown of odds in all top categories.

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“Fences” won the Tony Award for Best Play and Pulitzer Prize back in 1987 and Washington picked up a Tony in 2010 for headlining the first Broadway revival of this August Wilson domestic drama. He reprises his role as an ex-baseball player struggling to provide for his family as does his Broadway co-star Viola Davis, who won a Tony for her performance as a wife whose loyalty is tested.

Washington is in second place in the Best Actor race (at 9/2 odds) as is one-time frontrunner Davis for Best Actress. Davis, a two-time Oscar also-ran (“Doubt,” 2008; “The Help,” 2011) now has odds of 4/1 while “La La Land” leading lady Emma Stone is in first at 5/2. Newcomer Ruth Negga (“Loving”) is third at 5/1 as is her co-star, Joel Edgerton, for Best Actor at 13/2 as well while Stone’s leading man Ryan Gosling sits in fourth (7/1).

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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