While Emma Stone (“La La Land”) still leads in the Oscar race for Best Actress, with thirteen of our 24 Oscar experts derived from major media outlets continuing to back her bid, she faces strong challenges from two women who headline true stories. 2010 Oscar champ Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”) has the votes of four experts for her work as the widowed Jacqueline Kennedy in “Jackie” as does Hollywood newcomer Ruth Negga for her portrayal of an African-American woman sent to jail for marrying a white man in “Loving.”
Annette Bening, who lost one of her three Best Actress bids to Portman (she was up for “The Kids Are All Right”), is in strong contention this year for her role as a free-spirited mother in “20th Century Women.” She has one vote as does Viola Davis (“Fences”), who has decided to campaign in supporting. That move took this two-time past nominee out of our top five overall, to be replaced by five-time also-ran Amy Adams (“Arrival”). I am betting on another past nominee, Taraji P. Henson, for her performance in “Hidden Figures” as the unheralded Katherine Johnson, who played a key role in the early days of NASA.
See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to likelihood of winning in all top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see other categories. And see individual experts’ Oscar predictions as well.
1. Emma Stone, “La La Land” (9/4 odds)
Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out.com), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com).
2. Natalie Portman, “Jackie” (4/1 odds)
Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly)
3. Ruth Negga, “Loving” (4/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
4. Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” (15/2 odds)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
5. Amy Adams, “Arrival” (16/1 odds)
6. Viola Davis, “Fences” (28/1 odds)
Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes),
7. Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” (40/1 odds)
8. Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane” (40/1 odds)
9. Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” (66/1 odds)
Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby),
10. Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” (80/1 odds)
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.