Oscar predictions flashback (2014 – 2016): What was our accuracy rate three months before nominations?

Yes, it is still 99 days before Oscar nominations are announced on January 23. So you might be wondering why we are predicting them already when we haven’t even seen some of the top contenders like “Fences” and “Silence.” Part of the art of punditry is being able to foresee what will (and won’t) appeal to Oscar voters. As you can see from the lists below, we correctly predicted the majority of the Best Picture nominees at this point in the season in each of the last three years.

Experts’ Oscar predictions for Best Picture: ‘La La Land’ widens lead

Last year at this time — 88 days before nominations were revealed on Jan. 14 — we  had foreseen 29 0f the eventual 43 nominees in the top eight categories for an accuracy rate of 67%. We were spot on about “Spotlight” winning Best Picture and Original Screenplay and we foresaw that Brie Larson would take home Best Actress for “Room.”

In 2014, we had 35 of the 43 nominees (81%) at this point in the race. We nailed three of the four acting awards. However, we thought Michael Keaton would be the big winner for “Birdman” and it turned out to be writer/director/producer Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu.

And in 2013, we went 29 for 44 (66%). We were correct that “12 Years a Slave” would win Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyongo) and Adapted Screenplay. And we tipped that Best Actress win for Cate Blanchett (“Blue Jasmine”).

Below, a recap of what we got right (and wrong) with placements on our charts noted throughout.

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

After reviewing our track records from the last three years, be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their contenders are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

October 18, 2015

Best Picture (6 of 8 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: “Spotlight”

Underestimated: “The Big Short” and “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Overestimated: “Joy” (#2); “Steve Jobs” (#3); “Carol” (#6); “The Hateful Eight” (#9)

Best Director (2 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had David O. Russell winning for “Joy” (he was snubbed) with eventual champ Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu for “The Revenant” in third.

Underestimated: Lenny Abrahamson for “Room”; Adam McKay for “The Big Short”; and George Miller for “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Overestimated: David O. Russell for “Joy” (#1); Danny Boyle for”Steve Jobs” (#4); Todd Haynes for “Carol” (#5)

Best Actor (4 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Michael Fassbender winning for “Steve Jobs” with eventual champ Leonardo DiCaprio for “The Revenant” in second.

Underestimated: Bryan Cranston for “Trumbo”

Overestimated: Johnny Depp for “Black Mass” (#4)

Best Actress (4 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: Brie Larson for “Room”

Underestimated: Charlotte Rampling for “45 Years”

Overestimated: Carey Mulligan for “Suffragette” (#5)

Best Supporting Actor (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Idris Elba winning for “Beasts of No Nation” (he was snubbed) with eventual champ Mark Rylance for “Bridge of Spies” in third.

Underestimated: Christian Bale for “The Big Short” and Sylvester Stallone for “Creed”

Overestimated: Idris Elba for “Beasts of No Nation” (#1) and Michael Keaton for “Spotlight” (#2)

Best Supporting Actress (4 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Rooney Mara winning for “Carol” with eventual champ Alicia Vikander for “The Danish Girl” in second.

Underestimated: Rachel McAdams for “Spotlight”

Overestimated: Jane Fonda for “Youth” (#5)

Best Original Screenplay (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: “Spotlight”

Underestimated: “Bridge of Spies” and “Ex Machina”

Overestimated: “Joy” (#2) and “The Hateful Eight” (#3)

Best Adapted Screenplay (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had “Steve Jobs” winning (it was snubbed) and did not have eventual champ “The Big Short” even being nominated.

Underestimated: “The Big Short” and “The Martian”

Overestimated: “Steve Jobs” (#1) and “The Revenant” (#4)

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October 18, 2014

Best Picture (6 of 8 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had “Boyhood” winning with eventual champ “Birdman” in third.

Underestimated:
“Selma” (#10); “Whiplash” (#11); “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (#12)

Overestimated: “Unbroken” (#2); “Interstellar” (#6); “Gone Girl” (#7); “Foxcatcher” (#8)

Best Director (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Richard Linklater winning for “Boyhood” with eventual champ Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu for “Birdman” in second.

Underestimated: Morten Tyldum for “The Imitation Game” (#7) and Wes Anderson for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (#12)

Overestimated: Angelina Jolie for “Unbroken” (#3) and Christopher Nolan for “Interstellar” (#5)

Best Actor (5 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Michael Keaton winning for “Birdman” with eventual champ Eddie Redmayne for “The Theory of Everything” in second.

Best Actress (4 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: Julianne Moore for “Still Alice”

Underestimated: Marion Cotillard for “Two Days, One Night” (#10)

Overestimated: Amy Adams for “Big Eyes” (#3)

Best Supporting Actor (5 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: J.K. Simmons for “Whiplash”

Best Supporting Actress (5 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: Patricia Arquette for “Boyhood”

Best Original Screenplay (4 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had “Boyhood” winning and eventual champ “Birdman” in second.

Underestimated: “Nightcrawler” (not even in top 28)

Overestimated: “Interstellar” (#5)

Best Adapted Screenplay (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had “Unbroken” winning (it was snubbed) and eventual champ “The Imitation Game” in third.

Underestimated: “American Sniper” (#7)

Overestimated: “Gone Girl” (#2)

Join in the fierce debate about the early Oscar contenders going on right now in our red-hot forums

October 18, 2013

Best Picture (6 of 9 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: “12 Years a Slave”

Underestimated: “Nebraska” (#10); “Her” (#13)

Overestimated: “Saving Mr. Banks” (#5); “The Butler” (#7); “Inside Llewyn Davis (#8); “August: Osage County” (#9)

Best Director (4 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Steve McQueen winning for “12 Years a Slave” and eventual champ Alonso Cuaron for “Gravity” in second.

Underestimated: Alexander Payne for “Nebraska” (#6)

Overestimated: Paul Greengrass for “Captain Phillips” (#3)

Best Actor (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Chiwetel Ejiofor winning for “12 Years a Slave” with eventual champ Matthew McConaughey for “Dallas Buyers Club” in third.

Underestimated: Leonardo DiCaprio for “Wolf of Wall Street” (#9) and Christian Bale for “American Hustle” (#11)

Overestimated: Robert Redford for “All is Lost” (#2) and Tom Hanks for “Captain Phillips” (#4)

Best Actress (4 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: Cate Blanchett for “Blue Jasmine”

Underestimated: Amy Adams for “American Hustle” (#6)

Overestimated: Emma Thompson for “Saving Mr. Banks” (#5)

Best Supporting Actor (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had Michael Fassbender for “12 Years a Slave” with eventual champ Jared Leto for “Dallas Buyers Club” in second.

Underestimated: Bradley Cooper for “American Hustle” (#8) and Jonah Hill for “Wolf of Wall Street” (#17)

Overestimated: Tom Hanks for “Saving Mr. Banks” (#3) and Daniel Bruhl for “Rush” (#5)

Best Supporting Actress (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: Luptia Nyongo for “12 Years a Slave”

Underestimated: Julia Roberts for “August: Osage County” (#7) and Sally Hawkins for “Blue Jasmine” (#8)

Overestimated: Oprah Winfrey for “The Butler” (#2) and Octavia Spencer for “Fruitvale Station” (#3)

Best Original Screenplay (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted Winner: We had “American Hustle” winning and eventual champ “Her” in eighth.

Underestimated: “Dallas Buyers Club” (#10)

Overestimated: “Inside Llewyn Davis” (#3) and”Gravity” (#5)

Best Adapted Screenplay (3 of 5 nominees)
Predicted (and Eventual) Winner: “12 Years a Slave”

Underestimated: “Philomena” (#7)

Overestimated: “August: Osage County” (#4)

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