Oscar predictions: Best Actor nominations for Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne …

leonardo dicaprio the revenant steve jobs michael fassbender eddie redmayne the danish girl oscar best actor

The five men we think will be nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars on Thursday (January 14) are listed below in order of their racetrack odds, with the predicted winner, Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Revenant"), noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 25 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year's Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

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Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant" – 8/5
Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs" – 5/1
Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"  6/1
Bryan Cranston, "Trumbo" – 7/1
Matt Damon, "The Martian" – 8/1

Compare Oscar odds in all 24 categories:
Experts vs. Editors vs. Top 24 Users vs. All Users

Unlike Best Picture and Best Director, where our four prediction groups disagree slightly on the lineup of nominees, our experts, editors, users and Top 24 Users are in lockstep on these five nominees for Best Actor, and they agree just as strongly on the winner.

The experts overwhelmingly favor DiCaprio for an overdue first win, with all 25 backing him: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tim Gray (Variety), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

All six out of six editors also predict DiCaprio: Chris BeachumMarcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Tom O'Neil, Paul Sheehan and myself.

Our Top 24 Users are slightly divided, but they give DiCaprio overwhelming best odds based on support from 21 of those elite predictors, including Denton Davidson and Cinemateo21, who tied for the highest accuracy predicting last year's Oscar nominations (79%). Two more top users are predicting a win for Fassbender, and one says last year's "The Theory of Everything" winner Redmayne will win his second in a row for "Danish Girl."

Dish all the Oscar races in our red-hot forums with Hollywood insiders

What do you think will win Best Actor? 

Make your Oscar predictions using the menu to the right or below. 

You'll compete to win our contest prizes for best picks — $500 (first place), $300 (second place) and $200 (third place) in Amazon gift certificates — a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year's Oscar nominations). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Oscar nominations last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.

Photo Credits: "The Revenant" by 20th Century Fox; "Steve Jobs" by Francois Duhamel/REX; "The Danish Girl" by Focus Features

8 thoughts on “Oscar predictions: Best Actor nominations for Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne …

  1. I hope those are the 5. Im so over Johnny Depp. Even if it was his best work in years. Id be fine with McKellen sneaking in but i just love him in general. I havent seen his Sherlock film yet.

  2. If we are talking about masterclass in acting for 2015, it is without doubt that Michael Fassbender gave the best performance for any male actor. But, then again, just my opinion!

  3. I like Leonardo di Caprio since he burst to stardom but you can’t reward him the Best Actor just because he is “owed”! For me, he did better if not excellent performances in The Departed, The Aviator and also, Blood Diamond.

  4. Fassbender is outstanding as SJ but his “I’m not campaigning but I’m really campaigning/showmance) isn’t like him. It’s a turn off. Leo is great in The Revenant. The movie is excellent. My vote is for Leo.

  5. Fassebender was outstanding in steve jobs. I usually hate biopics but each time fassbender acts in a film, he transforms it, a kind of reality distorsion 😉 his roles are complex. Michael Fassebender is a kind of mixture between woody allen and tom cruise he is oscar material

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