The five men we think will be nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars on Thursday (January 14) are listed below in order of their racetrack odds, with the predicted winner, Leonardo DiCaprio ("The Revenant"), noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 25 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year's Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Unlike Best Picture and Best Director, where our four prediction groups disagree slightly on the lineup of nominees, our experts, editors, users and Top 24 Users are in lockstep on these five nominees for Best Actor, and they agree just as strongly on the winner.
The experts overwhelmingly favor DiCaprio for an overdue first win, with all 25 backing him: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tim Gray (Variety), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
All six out of six editors also predict DiCaprio: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Tom O'Neil, Paul Sheehan and myself.
Our Top 24 Users are slightly divided, but they give DiCaprio overwhelming best odds based on support from 21 of those elite predictors, including Denton Davidson and Cinemateo21, who tied for the highest accuracy predicting last year's Oscar nominations (79%). Two more top users are predicting a win for Fassbender, and one says last year's "The Theory of Everything" winner Redmayne will win his second in a row for "Danish Girl."
What do you think will win Best Actor?
Make your Oscar predictions using the menu to the right or below.
Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Oscar nominations last year — and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.