While Emma Stone (“La La Land”) still leads in the Oscar race for Best Actress — with sixteen of our 26 Oscar experts derived from major media outlets continuing to back her bid — she faces strong challenges from three women who headline true stories. 2010 Oscar champ Natalie Portman (“Black Swan”) has the votes of six experts for her work as the widowed Jacqueline Kennedy in “Jackie.” Hollywood newcomer Ruth Negga has the support of two experts for her portrayal of an African-American woman sent to jail for marrying a white man in “Loving.” And I am predicting a win by Taraji P. Henson for her performance in “Hidden Figures” as real-life mathematician Katherine Johnson who was instrumental in many successful space launches in the early days of NASA.
Annette Bening, who lost one of her three Best Actress bids to Portman (she was up for “The Kids Are All Right”), has one vote for her role as a free-spirited mother in “20th Century Women.” Rounding out the top five is five-time Oscar also-ran Amy Adams (“Arrival”).
See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to likelihood of winning in all top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see other categories. And see individual experts’ Oscar predictions as well.
1. Emma Stone, “La La Land” (21/10 odds)
Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Michael Musto (Out.com), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Jeff Sneider (Mashable), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com).
2. Natalie Portman, “Jackie” (7/2 odds)
Erik Davis, Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Tim Gray (Variety), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB)
3. Ruth Negga, “Loving” (5/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
4. Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” (15/2 odds)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
5. Amy Adams, “Arrival” (14/1 odds)
6. Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” (33/1 odds)
Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby),
7. Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane” (40/1 odds)
8. Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” (50/1 odds)
9. Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” (66/1 odds)
10. Jennifer Lawrence, “Passengers” (100/1 odds)
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.