In the Oscar race for Best Cinematography, there is the chance for history to be made in more ways than one. “The Revenant‘s” Emmanuel Lubezki could become the first cinematographer in history to win three in a row; he claimed the last two for “Gravity” (2013) and “Birdman” (2014). But while he’s stringing victories together, Roger Deakins is hoping fi finally win for the first time for “Sicario,” which would be his 13th nomination.
The five films we think will be nominated for this award are below in order of their racetrack odds, with the predicted winner, “The Revenant” noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 25 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
All four of our predictions groups — experts, editors, users and Top 24 — agree on this lineup of nominees, and they all back the same winner as well.
The experts strongly favor “The Revenant” for the win, with 19 out of 25 backing the survival story: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
But the other six experts say it will be “Mad Max”: Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tim Gray (Variety), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) and Brian Truitt (USA Today).
Our editors also best odds to “The Revenant,” with all six of us predicting it to prevail: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Paul Sheehan, Tom O’Neil and myself.
The Top 24 Users are also strongly in favor of “The Revenant,” with 20 of those elite predictors giving it best odds, including Cinemateo21, who tied for the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (79%). Another three top users pick “Mad Max,” including Denton Davidson, who also had 79% at last year’s nominations. The last of our Top 24 is predicting “Sicario.”
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Photo Credits: “The Revenant” by 20th Century Fox; “Mad Max: Fury Road” by Warner Bros. Pictures; “Sicario” by Moviestore/REX