Experts’ Oscar predictions: ‘Spotlight’ widens lead over ‘The Big Short’ for Best Picture following SAG win

According to our Oscar experts, “Spotlight” has solidifed its lead in the race for Best Picture following its win for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards on Saturday. Eighteen journalists from leading publications like Entertainment Weekly and Huffington Post have updated their predictions and ten of them are now backing this six-time Oscar nominee to take the top prize. This support gives it even odds of 1/1 to prevail on Oscar Sunday (February 28).

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Six experts are still supporting “The Big Short,” which won Best Picture at the Producers Guild of America awards last Saturday. That guild uses the same system of counting that the academy does to decide its winner. It has previewed all six Best Picture champs since the Oscars expanded this category and went to a preferential ballot. This five-time Oscar contender now has odds of 9/4 to win Best Picture. 

Two experts still like the looks of “The Revenant,” which won three Golden Globes and has a leading 12 Oscar nominations. Those votes translate into odds of 15/2. 

Ten-time Oscar nominee “Mad Max: Fury Road,” which dominated the Critics’ Choice Awards winning nine awards, does not have any first-place votes from our experts. While it has odds of 66/1 to win Best Picture, its helmer, George Miller, has moved into first place over Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“The Revenant”) for Best Director. 

The Martian, which contends in seven Oscar categories but not Best Director, has odds of 80/1 as does “Room” (4 nominations). “Bridge of Spies” (6 nominations) and “Brooklyn” (3 nominations) sit at 100/1. 

UPDATED: Experts’ Oscars predictions in all 24 categories

The 10 experts backing “Spotlight” for the win are: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com) and me.

The six picking “The Big Short” to prevail are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily).

And the two touting “The Revenant” are: Edward Douglas (Comingsoon) and Tariq Khan (Fox News). 

Click here to see charts revealing how all of our Experts rank the contenders in all 24 categories.

Be sure to click on each category to see the individual Experts predictions for that race.

And click here to see the rankings and odds generated by combining their predictions.

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Our Experts are predicting that “The Revenant” will win two Oscars: Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Cinematography. 

“Mad Max: Fury Road” is expected to take home seven Oscars: Director (George Miller), Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. 

“Spotlight” will claim one other award: Original Screenplay. 

“The Big Short” will win one: Adapted Screenplay. 

“Room” is predicted to win Actress for Brie Larson while “Creed” will land Supporting Actor (Sylvester Stallone) and “The Danish Girl” will net Supporting Actress (Alicia Vikander). 

“Cinderella” is forecast for Costume Design, “The Hateful Eight” is ahead for Score and “The Hunting Ground” is tipped for Song.

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