The Oscar nominations will be announced this Thursday (January 14). After recent surprises among the nominees for the BAFTA Awards as well as the winner at Sunday’s Golden Globes, who will be nominated for Best Supporting Actor?
The five men we think will be nominated in this category are below in order of their racetrack odds with the predicted winner, Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies“), noted in gold. These official odds are derived from the predictions of 25 Expert film journalists along with the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations and the thousands of Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
Three out of four predictions groups — experts, editors and the Top 24 Users — agree on this lineup, but users differ slightly, projecting that Michael Keaton (“Spotlight”) will take the fifth nomination slot instead of Bale. Our predictors are much more divided about who will win.
The experts slightly favor Stallone for the win, with 11 out of 25 backing him: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
But another seven experts forecast a victory for stage veteran Rylance: Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Dave Karger (Fandango), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Michael Musto (Out.com), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood) and Glenn Whipp (LA Times).
Three experts favor Ruffalo: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Polowy (Yahoo) and Brian Truitt (USA Today). And Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) is betting on Elba.
But this contest is so wide-open that three of our experts are predicting victories for actors who aren’t even among our top five consensus nominees. Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes) says it will be Keaton (“Spotlight”), Keith Simanton (IMDB) expects Tom Hardy (“The Revenant“) to prevail. And Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) is going out on a limb for Paul Dano (“Love and Mercy“).
Our editors are also divided. Four out of six of us also predict Stallone: Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan. The other two of us, Chris Beachum and I, favor Rylance.
Our Top 24 Users are also somewhat divided, but they actually give Rylance strongest odds to prevail based on support from 19 of those elite predictors, including Denton Davidson, who tied for the highest accuracy predicting last year’s Oscar nominations (79%). Three more top users are predicting a win for Stallone, including Cinemateo21, who also tied with 79% accuracy in last year’s nominations. One top user says Elba will claim this award. And the last favors Keaton.
What do you think will win Best Supporting Actor?
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