Experts’ Oscar predictions: ‘La La Land’ will win 9, ‘Manchester by the Sea’ & ‘Moonlight’ are biggest threats

La La Land” is far ahead in the Oscar race for Best Picture, according to the 27 experts drawn from major media making their predictions here at Gold Derby. The vast majority (21 and counting) are backing this buoyant musical romance to win, giving it leading odds of 9/2. Two intense dramas — “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” — have split the major critics awards and either could pull off an upset if academy voters want to honor more serious fare.

“La La Land” is in the vein of 2011 Best Picture champ “The Artist,” a frothy film that raises the spirits. It is predicted to reap the most nominations (at least 12), including dual bids for writer/director Damien Chazelle. He is tipped to become the youngest-ever winner of Best Director at age 32 years, and 38 days; Norman Taurog was 32 years and 267 days when he won this award in 1931 for “Skippy.” His film is on track to claim nine Oscars in all, including actress (Emma Stone), cinematography, film editing, production design, score, song and sound mixing. That haul would tie it for third on the all-time list with “Gigi” (1958), “The Last Emperor” (1987) and “The English Patient” (1996). Another tuner, “West Side Story,” went 10 for 11 in 1961 while three films — “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “Lord of the Rings; The Return of the King” (2003) — have each claimed a record 11 Oscars.

“Manchester by the Sea,” which debuted to rave reviews at Sundance in January, led when we launched our prediction center in August and still has the backing of four experts. Reminiscent of 1980 Best Picture winner “Ordinary People,” this domestic drama, which won Best Picture from the New York Film Critics Circle, is now in second place with odds of 13/2. Kenneth Lonergan will reap bids for both writing and directing and is favored to win for his original screenplay. Casey Affleck is out front in Best Actor for his work as a grieving brother forced to care for his orphaned nephew (newcomer Lucas Hedges who is sure to contend in supporting) and come to terms with his ex-wife (Michelle Williams in a small but pivotal role).

“Moonlight,” which swept the Los Angeles critics awards with wins for Picture, Director (Barry Jenkins), Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) and Cinematography, has the support of two experts. Ali is ahead at the Oscars, while Jenkins could surprise in both directing and adapted screenplay as could lenser James Laxton and Naomie Harris in supporting actress.

Below, our exclusive odds based on the predictions by our experts; be sure to check out their individual Oscar predictions and the full breakdown of contenders in each category. And then make your own predictions  so that Hollywood insiders can see how your favorites are faring in our Oscar odds.

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BEST PICTURE
1. “La La Land” – 9/2
2. “Manchester by the Sea” – 13/2
3. “Moonlight” – 13/2
4. “Fences” – 9/1
5. “Lion ” – 12/1
6. “Arrival ” – 14/1
7. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 16/1
8. “Hell or High WaterLoving” – 18/1
9.”Silence” – 20/1
10. “Hidden Figures” – 25/1

Possibilities
11. “Jackie” – 25/1
12. “Loving” – 28/1
13. “Sully” – 50/1
14. “Patriot’s Day” – 100/1
15. “20th Century Women” – 100/1
16. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” – 9/5
2. Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” – 4/1
3. Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” – 4/1
4. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 11/1
5. Martin Scorsese, “Silence” – 12/1

Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” – 25/1
7. Jeff Nichols, “Loving” – 100/1
8. Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals” – 100/1
9. Pablo Larrain, “Jackie” – 100/1
10. David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water” – 100/1

BEST ACTOR
1. Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 15/8
2. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 3/1
3. Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” -11/2
4. Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 10/1
5.Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
5. Joel Edgerton, “Loving” – 18/1

Possibilities
7. Tom Hanks, “Sully” – 22/1
8. Michael Keaton, “The Founder” – 100/1
9. Andrew Garfield, “Silence” – 100/1
10. Matthew McConaughey, “Gold” – 100/1

BEST ACTRESS
1. Emma Stone, “La La Land” – 23/10
2. Natalie Portman, “Jackie” – 13/5
3.Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” – 9/1
4. Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” – 9/1
5. Amy Adams, “Arrival” – 10/1

Possibilities
6. Ruth Negga, “Loving” – 12/1
7. Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
8. Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 66/1
9. Sally Field, “My Name is Doris” – 100/1
10. Kate Beckinsale, “Love and Friendship” – 100/1

Find out what will win at the Oscars this year

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
1. Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” – 9/5
2. Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” – 5/1
3. Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” – 5/1
4. Dev Patel, “Lion” – 13/2
5. Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” – 16/1

Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 18/1
7. Issei Ogata, “Silence” – 50/1
8. Liam Neeson, “Silence” – 80/1
9. Kevin Costner, “Hidden Figures” – 80/1
10. Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water” – 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis, “Fences” – 17/10
2. Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” – 7/2
3. Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” – 9/2
4. Nicole Kidman, “Lion” – 8/1
5. Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” – 12/1

Possibilities
6 .Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women” – 33/1
7. Janelle Monae, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
8. Felicity Jones, “A Monster Calls” – 100/1
9. Margo Martindale, “The Hollars” – 100/1
10. Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals” – 100/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Fences” – 3/1
1. “Moonlight” – 3/1
3. “Arrival” – 5/1
4. “Lion ” – 8/1
5. “Silence” – 14/1
5. “Nocturnal Animals” – 11/1

Possibilities
7. “Hidden Figures” – 25/1
8. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 66/1
9. “A Monster Calls” – 80/1
10. “Love and Friendship” – 50/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Manchester by the Sea” – 3/2
2. “La La Land” – 4/1
3. “Hell or High Water” – 11/2
4. “Jackie” – 8/1
5. “20th Century Women” – 25/1

Possibilities
6. “The Lobster” – 25/1
7. “Captain Fantastic” – 33/1
8. “Zootopia” – 100/1
9. “Cafe Society” – 100/1
10. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 100/1

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “La La Land” – 7/4
2. “Silence” – 5/1
3. “Arrival” – 11/2
4. “Moonlight” – 6/1
5. “Jackie” – 9/1

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 50/1
7. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 66/1
8. “Nocturnal Animals” – 80/1
9. “Live By Night” – 80/1
10. “Hail, Caeasar” – 100/1
11. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 100/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Jackie” – 19/10
2. “La La Land” – 7/2
2. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 13/2
4. “Silence” – 9/1
5. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 11/1

Possibilities
6. “Allied” – 20/1
7. “Live By Night” – 50/1
8. “Love and Friendship” – 50/1
9. “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
10. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1
11. “Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children” – 100/1
12. “Rules Don’t Apply” – 100/1

BEST FILM EDITING
1. “La La Land” – 7/4
2. “Moonlight” – 13/2
3. “Jackie” – 8/1
4. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 8/1
5. “Silence” – 10/1

Possibilities
6. “Arrival” – 16/1
7. “Sully” – 33/1
8. “The Jungle Book” – 33/1
9. “Manchester by the Sea” – 33/1
10. “Hidden Figures” – 66/1

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. “Jackie” – 1/1
2. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 6/1
3. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 15/2

Possibilities
4. “Silence” – 8/1
5. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 22/1
6. “Doctor Strange” – 40/1
7. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 40/1
9. “Deadpool” – 80/1

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “La La Land” – 15/8
2. “Jackie” – 6/1
3. “Silence” – 13/2
4. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 7/1
5. “The Jungle Book” – 16/1

Possibilities
6. “Live By Night” – 22/1
7. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 22/1
8. “Arrival” – 22/1
9. “Rules Don’t Apply” – 50/1
10. “Fences” – 80/1
11. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1

BEST SCORE
1. “La La Land” – 3/2
2. “Jackie” – 11/2
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 11/1
4. “Moonlight”- 11/1
5. “Lion” – 12/1

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 33/1
7. “Nocturnal Animals” 40/1
8. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 50/1
9. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 50/1
10. “Hidden Figures” – 50/1

BEST SONG
1. “City of Stars” from “La La Land” – 2/1
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana” – 7/2
3. “Audition” from “La La Land” – 6/1
4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”- 13/2
5. “Runnin” from “Hidden Figures” – 18/1

Possibilities
6. “Try Everything” from “Zootopia” – 20/1
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from “Sing Street” – 50/1
8. “Faith” from “Sing” – 66/1
9. “Gold” from “Gold” – 100/1
10. “I See a Victory” from “Hidden Figures” – 100/1

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 21/10
2. “La La Land” – 9/2
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 11/2
4. “Silence” – 9/1
5. “Arrival” – 10/1

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 12/1
7. “Deepwater Horizon” – 40/1
8. “Sully”- 50/1
9. “Doctor Strange” – 100/1
10. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”- 100/1

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “La La Land” – 17/10
2. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 9/2
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” -11/2
4. “Silence” – 11/1
5. “The Jungle Book” – 14/1

Possibilities
6. “Arrival” – 16/1
7. “Sully” – 40/1
8. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 50/1
9. “Deepwater Horizon” – 80/1
10. “Passengers” – 100/1

BEST  VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “The Jungle Book” – 23/10
2. “Doctor Strange” – 4/1
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 4/1
4. “Arrival” – 15/2
5. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 8/1

Possibilities
6. “Captain America: Civil War” – 33/1
7. “Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children” – 33/1
8. “Star Trek: Beyond” – 100/1
9. “Doctor Strange” – 100/1
10. “Deadpool”- 100/1

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. “Zootopia” – 17/10
2. “Kubo and the Two Strings” – 4/1
3. “Moana” – 5/1
4. “Finding Dory” – 9/1
5. “The Red Turtle” – 12/1

Possibilities
6. “Sing” – 28/1
7. “Sausage Party” – 40/1
8. “The Little Prince” – 50/1
9. “Miss Hokusai” – 100/1
10. “Trolls” – 100/1

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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