Our reader Kevin Spellman (screen name Kevinps37) did so well at predicting last year’s Oscars — 10th place out of more than 3,200 predictors — that he’s now showcased in a league along with the other Top 24 Users to forecast this year’s winners. He had an accuracy rate of 91.67% and 4,912 points last year, missing only two categories: Best Original Screenplay and Best Score.
This year, Spellman is going out on a limb on a few Oscar races. Is he right? Below, see his explanations for his savvy Oscar predictions and resist the urge to copy or steal them as your own. (Click here to see his current Oscar rankings in all 24 races.)
“I’ve been predicting ‘The Big Short‘ to win Best Picture since the SAG nominations came out, and despite ‘Spotlight‘ taking SAG, I’m sticking with ‘The Big Short,'” he tells us. “That PGA win, with the preferential ballot, really bodes well for its chances. ‘Spotlight’ missing out on a BAFTA Best Director nomination and an ACE Eddie nom really hurts it, but it’s definitely got a good shot. ‘The Revenant‘ could surprise, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
“I don’t like to predict splits between Picture and Director, hence my Adam McKay pick, but George Miller looks to be a real threat. I just can’t envision the academy awarding Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu twice in a row. If there’s enough of a split between those three, McCarthy could sneak in. If Lenny Abrahamson wins, I’ll give YOU guys $1000.
“The two lead acting categories are locks for Leonardo DiCaprio (‘The Revenant’) and Brie Larson (‘Room’), but both supporting categories are pretty tough. I’m calling Christian Bale to get swept up in ‘The Big Short’s’ Best Picture win and pull an upset — for now. If either Idris Elba or Mark Rylance win at the BAFTAs, I’m probably switching my pick to Sylvester Stallone. But if Bale wins the BAFTA, the Oscar is likely his as well. Rylance is a relative unknown, and they seem to only win for big, showy roles (Cuba Gooding Jr., Lupita Nyong’o) or non-English speaking foreign roles (Christoph Waltz, Jean Dujardin, Marion Cotillard). Rylance is neither. He might win the BAFTA, but I don’t see him winning the Oscar.
“Supporting Actress seems like Alicia Vikander (‘The Danish Girl‘) right now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if her and Rooney Mara ended up splitting enough votes for Kate Winslet to sneak in and win her second trophy. And ‘World of Tomorrow‘ is going to win Best Animated Short. Hertzfeldt rules.”
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