Our reader Doug Jamieson did so well at predicting the last two Oscar ceremonies that he’s now showcased in a league along with the other All-Star Users to forecast this year’s winners. He had an accuracy rate of 87.5% (21 out of 24 categories) last year and also 87.5% in 2013, which makes him one of Gold Derby’s 24 all-star predictors.
This year, Jamieson is going out on a limb on a few Oscar races, including picking “The Big Short” to win Best Picture despite “The Revenant” dominating at the DGA Awards and BAFTA. Is he right? Below, see his explanations for his savvy Oscar predictions and resist the urge to copy or steal them as your own. (Click here to see his current Oscar rankings in all 24 races.)
“Strangely, BAFTA hasn’t changed my mind like I thought it would,” reveals Jamieson. “I know everyone is now on ‘The Revenant’ bandwagon but I think I’m going to go out on a limb and stay with ‘The Big Short.'”
“You can’t overlook the preferential ballot and how that will come into play to help ‘The Big Short.’ If you look at the reviews, you can see ‘The Revenant’ is a very divisive film. That doesn’t bode well for a preferential style of voting. It will get a lot of #1’s but it will likely fail to capture #2’s and #3’s, and we know a film has to do this to win. That’s why ‘The Revenant’ didn’t win at PGA and why I don’t think it will win at the Oscars.
“I was one of the few who predicted ‘The Big Short’ for PGA because it’s stronger on preferentials and I was right. You can’t overlook the last eight years of PGA matching Best Picture. That stat is just too strong to ignore, particularly given PGA is the only other awards show to match Oscar’s preferential ballot.
“Another sticking point is that ‘The Revenant’ failed to capture the all-important screenplay nomination. I know it was light on dialogue, but I don’t see how you can award a film Best Picture without also saying it was one of the best written films of the year. The last film to win without this was ‘Titanic’ and that was a rare exception.
“Much like the Globes, ‘The Revenant’s’ BAFTA win seems more about awarding Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu after not going with ‘Birdman’ last year. Given Oscar did go with ‘Birdman,’ there’s no reason to go with another Inarritu film, particularly one that’s not universally loved. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, but I’d rather go out on a limb and stick with my instincts and my instincts say ‘The Big Short.'”
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“The Big Short” photo credit: Paramount