In our exclusive video (watch above or view here), Gold Derby editors Paul Sheehan, Daniel Montgomery, Chris Beachum and Marcus Dixon try to sort out the biggest Oscar cliffhanger: What's ahead to win Best Picture?
Yes, "The Big Short" just won the Producers Guild of America Award, which normally tattles on what will snag the top Oscar, but it only has 5 nominations. Rarely do films prevail with such limited support across the categories. One recent exception: "The Departed," but that may have been a special case since its victory was all about the academy finally catching up with director Martin Scorsese.
But we all agree that "The Big Short" has a big shot at winning the SAG Award for Best Ensemble this weekend and, if it triumphs there, that's good news for its Oscar hopes since 50% of the SAG ensemble champs end up with the top Oscar.
Meantime, "Spotlight" just won the Critics' Choice Award and "The Revenant" won Best Drama Picture at the Golden Globes where "The Big Short" and "Spotlight" were shut out. "Spotlight" is "The Big Short's" biggest competition for that SAG ensemble award and it has a strong chance of bagging it.
Don't write off "The Revenant." It has the most Oscar nominations (12). Seven times out of the past 15 years the film with the most bids won Best Picture. Its Oscar hopes are also bolstered by the fact that its helmer Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu has a good shot to win Best Picture.
Confused yet? We are, too!