“I say, ‘Hold your guns here!'” Pete Hammond (Deadline) declares in our video chat when we discuss how legions of Oscar experts suddenly switched their Best Picture prediction to “The Revenant” following its recent victory at BAFTA. See their latest picks here.
Those big guns may be going off half-cocked considering the strong support for “The Big Short” and “Spotlight,” Pete adds. Yes, BAFTA has correctly predicted Best Picture at the Oscars six times in the past seven years, but it was wrong last year, opting for “Boyhood” over eventual champ “Birdman.”
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It all comes down to that preferential ballot used by Oscar voters who rank five Best Picture nominees. Theoretically, a film could win without getting the most number-one votes. Enough number two or three votes could give it the consensus support it needs to prevail.
“Everything says to me that ‘The Revenant’ is the safe choice,” Pete admits. “The number of nominations it has, the number of awards it can win. And it’s going to get a lot of number-one votes. But academy voters I’ve spoken to – they either love it or they admire it. So it’s either a number-one vote or it’s a four or five or maybe even further down.
“I’ve been saying all along that I have a hunch that it may be more PGA than DGA this year and ‘The Big Short’ could sneak in. Or ‘Spotight.'” “The Big Short” won the PGA (Producers’ Guild) award. “Spotlight” snagged SAG. DGA = “The Revenant.”
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