How many Oscar nominations will “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” get? Will it outdo “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” which earned five nominations in 2015?. We asked our readers to let us know in a recent poll. Check out the complete results below.
Our readers are divided. A leading 27% of poll respondents say “Rogue One” will receive three Oscar nominations, just a couple shy of “The Force Awakens,” but still more than any other “Star Wars” film has received since “The Phantom Menace” picked up a trio of bids in 1999.
That poll result doesn’t actually match our racetrack odds, which are based on the combined Oscar predictions of Gold Derby Experts, Editors and Users. As of this writing we have “Rogue One” ranked third for Best Sound Mixing, second for Best Sound Editing, fourth for Best Score and second for Best Visual Effects — that’s four nominations. We also have the film ranked fifth for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, but the academy limits that category to just three nominees, so that puts “Rogue One” just outside of contention.
In our poll 19% of readers agree with those odds that “Rogue One” will receive four nominations, while another 17% bet on the film to receive two. That means 63% of readers expect the film to fall somewhere in that range from two to four — not a bad haul give how stingy Oscar voters often are to sci-fi films.
But is it possible the film will do much better than that — or much worse? 11% of readers say that “Rogue One” will be skunked completely by the motion picture academy, which would make it the first “Star Wars” movie not to receive a single Oscar nom. Even the three maligned sequels — “Phantom Menace,” followed by “Attack of the Clones” (2002) and “Revenge of the Sith” (2005) — each received at least one nomination.
At the opposite extreme, another 17% of respondents think “Rogue One” will reap six or more nominations. Not only would that improve upon the total for “The Force Awakens,” it would make “Rogue One” the most successful “Star Wars” film since the first installment, “A New Hope,” earned 10 nominations and six competitive wins in 1977. Might it even be a rogue contender for Best Picture?
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “Rogue One” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.