On Thursday, the 1,200 members of the nominating committee for the Screen Actors Guild Awards can go online and cast their ballots. They have until Dec. 11 to decide on which film ensembles and performances are their favorites of the year. Not surprisingly, these awards stand as one of the strongest predictors of the four acting categories at the Oscars.
Last January, Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”), Brie Larson (“Room”), and Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) all collected prizes from their peers before prevailing at the Academy Awards as well. But guild members did go with Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”) for Supporting Actor; he was snubbed at the Oscars, with that prize going to Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”). In all, 13 of the 20 SAG nominees reaped Oscar bids.
Two years ago, all four of the individual SAG champs — leads Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”) and Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”) as well as supporting players J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”), and Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) — went on to win Oscars. And the guild presaged 17 of the eventual 20 Oscar nominees for acting.
However, the guild is less reliable when predicting the Oscar winner for Best Picture. The Best Ensemble Cast winner has matched Oscar’s top prize only 11 times in 21 years, including last year’s double champ “Spotlight” and the 2014 winner “Birdman,” both of which starred Michael Keaton. However, the SAG Awards did preview two of Oscar’s biggest upsets: “Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan” in 1998, and “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain” in 2005.
Be sure to make your SAG Awards predictions. What movies and performers will do well with the guild? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how it’s faring in our SAG Awards odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on December 14 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Globes taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.