Is there any chance of an upset for Best Actress at the SAG Awards? Brie Larson (“Room“) is the overwhelming favorite according to the predictions of the Expert film journalists we’ve polled, we Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, and our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s SAG winners.
All 15 of our experts are predicting Larson to win her first award on her first nomination, giving her overwhelming 1/10 odds: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Glenn Whipp (LA Times), Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
All seven of our editors – Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and I along with O’Neil and Sheehan – agree that Larson is out front.
Is there anyone who could conceivably beat the frontrunner? Of our Top 24 Users, 23 are predicting Larson, while the one outlier is betting on Cate Blanchett (“Carol“), who previously won as a member of the ensemble of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) and took individual honors for “The Aviator” (2004) and “Blue Jasmine” (2013).
The remaining three nominees have support from some of our Users, the group contributing their picks at Gold Derby who make up the biggest and often savviest bloc of predictors, but it’s limited. Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn“) ranks third with 28/1 odds when you combine the predictions of all groups. Helen Mirren (“Woman in Gold“) gets 66/1 odds. And Sarah Silverman (“I Smile Back“) gets 100/1 odds.
What do you think will win at the SAG Awards? Make your predictions beginning with Best Film Actress to the right or at the bottom of this post.
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Photo credit: “Room” by A24