Who will win the SAG Award for Best Film Supporting Actor is anyone's guess according to the predictions of the Expert film journalists we've polled, we Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby and our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year's winners. This has been one of the most unpredictable races of the season, not just at the SAG Awards but at all events. With so much flux, the current Oscar frontrunner, Sylvester Stallone ("Creed"), isn't even in contention for these kudos, which will be handed out Saturday. Does that leave a clear path to victory for Mark Rylance ("Bridge of Spies"), or is this race wide open?
Out of the 15 experts we've polled, 10 of them say Rylance is the frontrunner, giving him 8/13 odds: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Glenn Whipp (LA Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).
But another three experts say Christian Bale ("The Big Short") will come out on top, giving him 4/1 odds: Dave Karger (Fandango), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby) and Sasha Stone (Awards Daily). Could they be right?
Bale and Rylance are the only nominees here who are also up for the Oscar, and Bale has the added advantage of appearing in a nominee for Best Ensemble, which may suggest stronger overall support for him and his film. Also, Bale is already a two-time SAG champ, winning an individual prize for "The Fighter" (2010) and an ensemble award for "American Hustle" (2013).
The last two experts, Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post) and Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), are predicting Idris Elba ("Beasts of No Nation"), giving him 6/1 odds. Like Bale, Elba's film is nominated for Best Ensemble, and he also earned a third nomination this year for Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor for "Luther," so SAG voters are undoubtedly fond of him. However, he was snubbed at the Oscars, which may put him at a disadvantage, in this category at least.
But while experts are predominantly backing Rylance, most editors are anticipating a victory for Bale. Four out of seven of us are forecasting that result: Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Rob Licuria and O'Neil. Matt Noble and I pick Rylance, while Sheehan has Elba for the win.
Our Top 24 Users are even more divided than the rest of us. While 11 of them are betting on Rylance, six say it will be Elba, four say Bale and the last three are going out on a limb for Jacob Tremblay ("Room").
This category's biggest underdog appears to be Michael Shannon ("99 Homes"), who has some limited support from the total group of Users who make up the biggest and often the savviest bloc of predictors at Gold Derby. When you combine the forecasts of all our predictors, Shannon trails with 80/1 odds.
What do you think will win at the SAG Awards? Make your predictions beginning with Best Film Supporting Actor to the right or at the bottom of this post.
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