“The People v. O.J. Simpson” is the gift that keeps on giving for its cast and crew in 2016. After winning nine Emmys including Best Limited Series in September, it swept the Critics’ Choice Awards with four wins and led the Golden Globe nominations with five bids including Best TV Movie/Limited Series. There are only two categories for longform programming at the SAG Awards, whose nominations are announced on December 14, but “People v. O.J.” is once again expected to make the most of its opportunity according to our predictions.
These official odds are derived from the predictions of Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year’s SAG TV nominations, the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ SAG noms, and hundreds of total Users who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.
“The People v. O.J. Simpson” is forecast to win both categories. Sarah Paulson has leading 17/10 odds of winning Best TV Movie/Mini Actress for her Emmy winning turn as prosecutor Marcia Clark. And in the race for Best TV Movie/Mini Actor, two more “People v. O.J.” Emmy winners are expected to go head-to-head, with Sterling K. Brown (11/5 odds) expected to overtake his co-star Courtney B. Vance (5/2 odds). Brown won the Emmy in the supporting category as prosecutor Christopher Darden, while Vance won the lead contest as defense attorney Johnnie Cochran, but they’re pitted against each other here because the SAG Awards for TV combine lead and supporting performances.
No other movies or miniseries are expected to be nominated more than once. Following the “People v. O.J.” duo for Best TV Movie/Mini Actor are Bryan Cranston (“All the Way,” 10/3 odds), John Turturro (“The Night Of,” 9/2 odds) and Tom Hiddleston (“The Night Manager,” 11/2 odds).
Cranston is a four-time SAG winner out of 11 nominations: three times for “Breaking Bad” (once with the ensemble and twice individually) and once as a member of the ensemble of the feature film “Argo” (2012). Turturro also has a strong track record with the Screen Actors Guild with three nominations, though he has yet to win. Hiddleston, meanwhile, is aiming for his first career SAG bid.
Facing Paulson for Best TV Movie/Mini Actress are Kerry Washington (“Confirmation,” 10/3 odds), Jessica Lange (“Wild Oats,” 5/1 odds), Audra McDonald (“Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill,” 5/1 odds) and Regina King (“American Crime,” 5/1 odds).
Washington is a two-time SAG nominee: once for her individual performance in “Scandal” (2013) and once as a member of the ensemble cast of the film “Ray” (2004). King was also nominated with the cast of “Ray,” but a nomination for “American Crime” would be her first individual recognition from SAG. And McDonald, an Emmy winner and a six-time Tony winner, is seeking her first recognition of any kind from the Screen Actors Guild.
Lange, however, is the only past winner among our five predicted nominees. She won Best TV Drama Actress for her individual performance in the first season of “American Horror Story” (2011). She earned two more nominations in that category for “AHS” in 2012 and 2013. Before that she was nominated for Best Film Actress for “Blue Sky” (1994), a performance that would win her her second career Oscar, and she later contended for Best TV Movie/Mini Actress for the telefilm “Grey Gardens” (2009).
See our complete predictions below. Frontrunners to win are indicated in gold, and potential spoilers are in italics.
BEST TV MOVIE/MINI ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown, “The People v. O.J. Simpson” — 11/5
Courtney B. Vance, “The People v. O.J. Simpson” — 5/2
Bryan Cranston, “All the Way” — 10/3
John Turturro, “The Night Of” — 9/2
Tom Hiddleston, “The Night Manager” — 11/2
Spoilers: Riz Ahmed, “The Night Of” (12/1); Hugh Laurie, “The Night Manager” (12/1); Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride” (14/1)
BEST TV MOVIE/MINI ACTRESS
Sarah Paulson, “The People v. O.J. Simpson” — 17/10
Kerry Washington, “Confirmation” — 10/3
Jessica Lange, “Wild Oats” — 5/1
Audra McDonald, “Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill” — 5/1
Regina King, “American Crime” — 5/1
Spoilers: Olivia Colman, “The Night Manager” (6/1), Felicity Huffman, “American Crime” (6/1), Lili Taylor, “American Crime” (15/2)
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