With 34 actors, "Orange is the New Black" has by far the largest cast nominated for this year's SAG Award for Best TV Comedy Ensemble. The same was true last year, and that fact likely helped it win – large casts typically have an advantage when voters are considering the best ensemble acting – but can the popular Netflix series repeat? It faces a tough challenge from "Veep," the reigning Emmy winner for Best Comedy Series, which also has an impressive cast list – 14 actors strong.
Our Top 24 Users, who had the highest scores predicting last year's SAG winners, are almost evenly divided between "Veep" and "Orange." 10 of them are predicting "Orange," compared to nine for "Veep." Those forecasting the prison dramedy are Harley Diamond, Chels725, Bird, dosmax, Eng Keat, Jonathan Masongsong, GermnArturoCortsMatus, SupaDupa Fly, OberynShmartell and AayaanUpadhyaya.
Last year there was a seven-way tie for best predictions at 88% (seven out of eight categories correct), and Bird was among those savvy few, so it would be wise to heed his predictions.
The nine forecasting a first-time victory for "Veep" are TonyThomas, eastwest, KingJay, SenanL, bondzzz, Nika Litt, Noe, steo and wienrdog0. Of those, bondzzz and steo both had 88% correct last year, and bondzzz also had the highest points total because of his smart use of his 500 and 200-point big bets in our predictions center.
But this may not just be a two-way race. Another three of our elite users are predicting Amazon's "Transparent," which just won Best Comedy Series last weekend at the Producers Guild Awards. Those three are Draz, FreemanGriffin and MovieMania; FreemanGriffin scored 88% last year as well, so even the best of the best of our users can't agree on the outcome of this race.
One of our Top 24, smor, thinks four-time champ "Modern Family" (2010-2013) will make a comeback and prevail for the fifth time, while the last, Awardzilla, is going out on a limb for surprise nominee "Key and Peele." None of our top users are predicting the last nominee, "The Big Bang Theory."
However, the consensus of our Editors, we who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby, is different. Four of us – Chris Beachum, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble and Paul Sheehan – are betting on "Veep," while Marcus Dixon and I say "Orange is the New Black" will repeat. None of us anticipate a win for the other four nominees.
What do you think will win at the SAG Awards? Make your predictions beginning with Best TV Comedy Ensemble to the right or at the bottom of this post.
You could win a $100 Amazon gift certificate, a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year's Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting the SAG winners). contest rules.
Photo credits: "Orange is the New Black" by Netflix; "Veep" by HBO