Tony Awards 2016 predictions by experts: ‘Hamilton,’ ‘The Humans’ will be big winners

Our 13 Tony Awards experts have weighed in with their predictions in all 24 categories. These journalists, who cover the Broadway beat year-round, are all lined up behind “Hamilton” to win seven Tony Awards: Best Musical, a pair of prizes for creator Lin-Manuel Miranda (Score, Book), Director (Thomas Kail), Featured Actor (Daveed Diggs), Orchestrations and Lighting Design.

Among the other six races in which “Hamilton” contends, all but one expert is predicting it to prevail for Featured Actress (Renee Elise Goldsberry). The panel of pundits is split on its chances for Actor, Choreography, Costume Design and Scenic Design and holds out little hope for Actress. That award is expected to go to Cynthia Erivo for “The Color Purple,” which is also predicted to take Best Musical Revival.

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Over on the play side, “The Humans” should do well, taking Best Play and both featured acting awards (Reed Birney, Jayne Houdyshell).  The race for Director is split between its helmer, Joe Mantello,  and Ivo Van Hove for “The View From the Bridge,” which is predicted to win Best Play Revival.

All of our experts agree that Jessica Lange will take the Actress award for “Long Day’s Journey into Night” (thereby becoming the 22nd performer to win an Oscar, Emmy and Tony) while three-time Tony champ Frank Langella has the edge in Actor for “The Father.” The three design awards for plays are some of the most hotly contested races of the year.

Our baker’s dozen of Tony Awards experts are: Gordon Cox (Variety), Susan Haskins (Theater Talk), Harry Haun (Playbill), Andy Humm (Gay USA), Andy Lefkowitz (Theatermania), Brian Lipton (Cititour), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), David Sheward (Gold Derby), Jack Smart (Backstage), Matt Windman (amNY) and Wayman Wong (Talkin’ Broadway).

Below, the complete breakdown of experts’ predictions by category. Be sure to click on each category title to see their complete rankings in that race.

[WATCH] Tony Awards 2016 predictions preview: Will ‘Hamilton’ set new record?

MUSICALS

BEST MUSICAL
“Hamilton” — All 13 experts
“Bright Star”
“School of Rock”
“Shuffle Along”
“Waitress”

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
“The Color Purple” — 9 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Humm, Lefkowitz, Lipton, O’Neil, Sheward, Windman
“She Loves Me” — 4 experts: Musto, Sheehan, Smart, Wong
“Fiddler on the Roof”
“Spring Awakening”

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Leslie Odom, “Hamilton” — 5 experts: Cox, Haun, Musto, Sheehan, Wong
Danny Burstein, “Fiddler on the Roof” — 4 experts: Lefkowitz, Lipton, Sheward, Windman
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton” — 4 experts: Haskins, Humm, O’Neil, Smart
Alex Brightman, “School of Rock”
Zachary Levi, “She Loves Me”

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Cynthia Erivo, “The Color Purple” — 12 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Lefkowitz, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Smart, Windman, Wong
Phillipa Soo, “Hamilton” — 1 expert: Humm
Laura Benanti, “She Loves Me”
Carmen Cusack, “Bright Star”
Jessie Mueller, “Waitress”

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daveed Diggs, “Hamilton” — All 13 experts
Brandon Victor Dixon, “Shuffle Along”
Christopher Fitzgerald, “Waitress”
Jonathan Groff, “Hamilton”
Christopher Jackson, “Hamilton”

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Renee Elise Goldsberry, “Hamilton” — 12 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Lefkowitz, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Smart, Windman, Wong
Jennifer Simard, “Disaster!” — 1 expert: Humm
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Jane Krakowski, “She Loves Me”
Adrienne Warren, “Shuffle Along”

BEST DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Thomas Kail, “Hamilton” — All 13 experts
Michael Arden, “Spring Awakening”
John Doyle, “The Color Purple”
Scott Ellis, “She Loves Me”
George C. Wolfe, “Shuffle Along”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton” — All 13 experts
Sara Bareilles, “Waitress”
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, “Bright Star”
Andrew Lloyd Webber and Glenn Slater, “School of Rock”

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton” — All 13 experts
Julian Fellowes, “School of Rock”
Steve Martin, “Bright Star”
George C. Wolfe, “Shuffle Along”

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Andy Blankenbuehler, “Hamilton” — 7 experts: Cox, Haskins, Humm, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Wong
Savion Glover, “Shuffle Along” — 6 experts: Haun, Lefkowitz, Sheehan, Sheward, Smart, Windman
Jofesh Schechter, “Fiddler on the Roof”
Randy Skinner, “Dames at Sea”
Sergio Trujillo, “On Your Feet!”

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Alex Lacamoire, “Hamilton” — All 13 experts
August Eriksmoen, “Bright Star”
Larry Hochman, “She Loves Me”
Daryl Waters, “Shuffle Along”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN IN A MUSICAL
Paul Tazewell, “Hamilton” — 9 experts: Haskins, Humm, Lefkovitz, Lipton, O’Neil, Sheehan, Smart, Windman, Wong
Ann Roth, “Shuffle Along” — 4 experts: Cox, Haun, Musto, Sheward
Greg Barnes, “Tuck Everlasting”
Jeff Mahsie, “She Loves Me”

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Howell Binkley, “Hamilton” — All 13 experts
Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer, “Shuffle Along”
Ben Stanton, “Spring Awakening”
Justin Townsend, “American Psycho”

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
David Rockwell, “She Loves Me” — 8 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Lipton, Musto, Sheward, Windman, Wong
David Korins, “Hamilton” —  5 experts: Humm, Lefkowitz, O’Neil, Sheehan, Smart
Es Devlin and Finn Ross, “American Psycho”
Santo Loquasto, “Shuffle Along”

[WATCH] Tony Awards 2016 predictions preview: Battle for Best Play between ‘The Humans’ and ‘Eclipsed’

PLAYS

BEST PLAY
“The Humans” — 12 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Lefkowitz, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Smart, Windman, Wong
“King Charles III” — 1 expert: Humm
“Eclipsed”
“The Father”

BEST PLAY REVIVAL
“A View from the Bridge” — 7 experts: Cox, Haun, Musto, Sheward, Smart, Windman, Wong
“Long Day’s Journey Into Night” — 4 experts: Humm, Lipton, O’Neil, Sheehan
“Blackbird” — 1 expert: Lefkowitz
“The Crucible” — 1 expert: Haskins
“Noises Off”

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Frank Langella, “The Father” — 9 experts: Haskins, Haun, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman, Wong
Jeff Daniels, “Blackbird” — 2 experts: Cox, Lefkowtiz
Tim Pigott-Smith, “King Charles III” — 1 expert: Humm
Mark Strong, “A View from the Bridge” — 1 expert: Smart
Gabriel Byrne, “Long Day’s Journey Into Night”

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Jessica Lange, “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” –All 13 experts
Laurie Metcalf, “Misery”
Lupita Nyong’o, “Eclipsed”
Sophie Okonedo, “The Crucible”
Michelle Williams, “Blackbird”

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Reed Birney, “The Humans” — 11 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Lefkowitz, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Smart, Windman, Wong
Michael Shannon, “Long Day’s Journey Into Night” — 2 experts: Humm, Sheward
Bill Camp, “The Crucible”
David Furr, “Noises Off”
Richard Goulding, “King Charles III”

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Jayne Houdyshell, “The Humans” — 12 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Humm, Lefkowitz, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman, Wong
Saycon Sengbloh, “Eclipsed” — 1 expert: Smart
Pascale Armand, “Eclipsed”
Megan Hilty, “Noises Off”
Andrea Martin, “Noises Off”

BEST DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
Joe Mantello, “The Humans” — 8 experts: Lefkowitz, Cox, Haun, Smart, Windman, Musto, Haskins, O’Neil
Ivo Van Hove, “A View from the Bridge” — 5 experts: Humm, Lipton, Sheward, Sheehan, Wong
Rupert Goold, “King Charles IIII”
Jonathan Kent, “Long Day’s Journey into Night”
Liesl Tommy, “Eclipsed”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN IN A PLAY
Jane Greenwood, “Long Day’s Journey into Night” — 6 experts: Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Windman, Wong
Clint Ramos, “Eclipsed” — 5 experts: Cox, Haskins, Haun, Lefkovitz, Sheward
Tom Scutt, “King Charles III” – 2 experts: Humm, Smart
Michael Krass, “Noises Off”

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Justin Townsend, “The Humans” — 5 experts: Haun, Lipton, Musto, Sheehan, Windman
Jan Versweyveld, “A View from the Bridge” — 5 experts: Humm, O’Neil, Sheward, Smart, Wong
Jan Versweyveld, “The Crucible” — 3 experts: Cox, Haskins, Lefkowitz
Natasha Katz, “Long Day’s Journey into Night”

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
David Zinn, “The Humans” — 9 experts: Cox, Haskins, Lipton, Musto, O’Neil, Sheehan, Sheward, Windman, Wong
Beowulf Borritt, “Therese Raquin” — 2 experts: Lefkowitz, Smart
Christopher Oram, “Hughie” — 1 expert: Haun
Jan Versweyveld, “A View from the Bridge” — 1 expert: Humm

[WATCH] Tony Awards predictions preview: Creative arts races are key to winning our contest

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