Were you surprised by the Directors Guild Awards on Saturday night? Most of our predictors were betting on George Miller (“Mad Max: Fury Road“) to win Best Film Director. Insstead the prize went to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“The Revenant“) for an unprecedented second year in a row; he also won last year for “Birdman.” Does that mean he’ll win the Best Director Oscar for the second year in a row? What’s more, does that mean “The Revenant” will win Best Picture?
This year’s Oscar race is more uncertain than usual thanks to the split of the industry’s most influential guilds: the Directors Guild (which picked “The Revenant”), the Producers Guild (which opted for “The Big Short“) and the Screen Actors Guild (who chose “Spotlight” for Best Ensemble). Will Best Picture inevitably go to one of those three films? And if so, which one and why?
Read our posters’ comments below, and click here to jump directly into the Oscar conversation.
Joe Burns: BAFTA may help a little, but if “The Revenant” wins there, you could still look at it as consolation wins since neither “Birdman” nor Innaritu won there last year. I think Alejandro will definitely win Director there, but I could see “The Big Short” winning Picture. Alejandro does seem popular enough to win Director two years in a row, so I’m predicting him to triumph [on February 28] and be the third director to win Best Director in consecutive years [at the Oscars]. I think “The Revenant” has the edge [for Best Picture] though due to the overwhelming support of the tech branches as well the fact “The Big Short” is a much smaller film.
Moviebuff22: You guys can get mad all you want, but there’s a very real chance “Revenant” is winning all the big awards. Yes, BAFTA normally isn’t a big indicator, but in an awards season as topsy-turvy as this year it can be. “The Revenant” already has loads of momentum on its own, so a third big win is only going to increase the hype. Not to mention academy voting opens right after BAFTAs.
AnDresGtz: Guys, you should let go of your favorites in this race and stay with the math. “The Big Short” still is the frontrunner, being backed up by the [American Cinema Editors] and the Producers Guild. “The Revenant” is second with just its DGA win and at third is “Spotlight” with SAG.
KyleBailey: Booooooooo hissssssssss booooooooooooooo. Let’s just get this awful season over with what a shame that Alejandro’s ego just keeps getting bigger and bigger while George Miller has to suffer in the audience watching it happen.
Lord Freddy Blackfyre: If you are willing to predict George Miller to win the Oscar then you need to consider “Mad Max” to be in the top two for BP and there’s not evidence that “MM” is a strong contender to win BP.
Madame Riva: Honestly, “Spotlight” won the least important of the three [major guild awards], and we all know it. WGA won’t clear anything, either. I also don’t think it necessarily means that “Spotlight” has the most support from acting branch just because it won SAG Ensemble. Acting branch also nominated Tom Hardy despite hardly any precursors, so the support is also there for “The Revenant.” Lots of actors have watched the movie to see the Leo’s performance, and his friends will vote for him just because he’s in it.
Nick: DGA has basically clarified that “Mad Max” is not winning Picture or Director. So that’s out. So now, it is between “Big Short,” “Revenant,” and “Spotlight” in a very distant third. People are saying “The Revenant” will take this but like Sasha Stone said, it could’ve won PGA, but why didn’t it?
Jason Travis: What an insane year. I don’t see Alejandro winning Best Director without “Revenant” also winning Best Picture. Just isn’t working out logically — it’s all or nothing. With this DGA win, I might have to put all the chips on “The Revenant” and figure “Spotlight” and “Big Short” cancel each other out as the “small, important social issue” movies.
Absidd: My predictions have always been “The Revenant” for BP and director for Inarritu! Also Leo is winning Best Actor and Chivo is winning Cinematography! So there’s four Oscars already! I think “Revenant” will also win some in the technical categories (Makeup and Editing). It’s very simple math!
Asgaroth: It’s like 90% certain now that Iñarritu will repeat. But I don’t think “Revenant” is taking BP. Since preferential ballot system PGA is still the most reliable predictor for that. I believe we will have the same 2013 scenario where a split is to be predicted.
Who do you think will win Oscar? Make your predictions beginning with Best Picture to the right or at the bottom of this post.
Photo Credits: “The Revenant” by 20th Century Fox; “The Big Short” by Paramount Pictures; “Spotlight” by Open Road Films