As we wait for the PGA Awards this weekend and the SAG Awards next weekend, our forum posters are considering all the possibilities. Among the hottest topics, posters in our movies forum are discussing whether Sylvester Stallone ("Creed"), a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor, could ultimately be disappointed like Lauren Bacall was when she was nominated for "The Mirror Has Two Faces" in 1996, ultimately losing in an upset to Juliette Binoche ("The English Patient").
They're also wondering whether Lady Gaga and Diane Warren will win Best Original Song for "Til It Happens to You" from the documentary "The Hunting Ground," or if they could be upset by The Weeknd's "Earned It" from "Fifty Shades of Grey." Also, why are the Oscars so biased towards dramas and dramedies against laugh-out-loud comedies? Is it time for the academy to lighten up?
Read our posters' comments about those topics and more below, and click on each forum topic title to jump directly into that conversation.
Baby Clyde: Sylvester Stallone is hardly some beloved Hollywood acting legend. He's not overdue. I agree that the narrative works in his favor, as does the fact there isn't one definite alternative for everyone to rally around, but do you really think academy members are going to think that the man with 10 Razzies is really deserving of the highest honor the industry can bestow? (Is Sly Stallone this year's Lauren Bacall?)
AwardsConnect: What helps Stallone in this particular comparison, beyond the fact that Bacall didn't exactly have the reputation of being a … let's say, particularly friendly lady, is the unpredictable nature of this line-up. An argument really could be made for any one of Rylance (likely BAFTA winner), Bale (very possible SAG winner), Ruffalo (if "Spotlight" takes Picture and they want to give it an acting prize) or Hardy (for having an amazing year) winning, in that particular order of likelihood. The thing with Bacall is Binoche was the crystal-clear alternative for those who didn't want the former to prevail for her fluff performance. [Their rival nominees that year Joan Allen, Barbara Hershey and Marianne Jean-Baptiste] basically had no chance. For those who simply don't want to see Stallone with an Oscar, there is no clear alternative to rally behind. (Is Sly Stallone this year's Lauren Bacall?)
babypook: It's pretty easy to bash Sylvester. But he's still in the community, and makes huge money for the industry and has for many decades. He's a producer for "Creed," and a big supporter of Ryan Coogler, who is young and fiercely talented. He's also made some new fans, young men with testosterone flowing freely in their veins. Hey, I watched ALL of those "Expendable" films. Lol. (Is Sly Stallone this year's Lauren Bacall?)
AMG: ["Spotlight"] was a solid film, but you're right, nothing screams Best Picture winner. It is a heavily serious issue, and they handle it quite well. Maybe that's why it is at the top of the pack. "The Big Short," "The Revenant," "Mad Max" and "The Martian" don't deal with such a serious and timely topic as "Spotlight" does. Maybe that's why it's ahead of the pack? ("Spotlight": is it REALLY the Best Film of the year, or it's supported for other reasons?)
Vincelette: Dramatic films are considered "worthy" while comedies are considered as "stupid fun." It's just unfair. "Spy" is probably among my Top 10 finalists this year … such funny, but also smart and incredibly human little comedy about a non-typicial hero full of laughs … Enough about the baity dramas, give a chance to quality comedy films! (#OscarsSoDramatic)
Tony_DiMeo: One thing that outraged me about the Oscar nominations is usually in the Best Original Screenplay category they nominate one or two comedies, but this year they didn't nominate any comedies in that category (unless you count "Inside Out" which I don't) when they could have nominated "Trainwreck" or "Spy." What is the deal with that? (#OscarsSoDramatic)
Atypical: I think the win's between "'Til It Happens to You" and "Writings on the Wall." "Manta Ray" was painful to listen to all the way through. This should have been either "Ill See You in My Dreams's" or "Love Me Like You Do's" slot (no love lost for "See You Again's" snubbage). It would be pretty unprecedented for a song like "Simple Song #3" to win. I just want to see that beast of a song performed live! It's too late for the Oscar nod to influence The Weeknd's Grammy chances, but some key wins there plus #OscarsSoWhite buzz might center around him as a placeholder win just like "Glory" did last year (not a knock against the stellar "Glory"; "Glory" > "Earned It"). But I'm sticking with Gaga & overdue Warren combo FTW. (2015 Oscar for Best Song)
Radiomon: It would be the shame of the night if "Earned It" wins over "Til It Happens To You" or even "Simple Song #3." "Til It Happens To You" is a powerful anthem for rape survivors written by Diane Warren (highly respected and nominated eight times) and Lady Gaga (who SLAYED everyone last year at Oscars and now is everywhere in the industry). If not "TIHTY," the winner will be "SS#3," a such emotional song. The Weeknd is too new and this song has a lot of writers. The academy loves emotional moments/winners, and "Earned It" is too weak and superfluous for a Oscar-winner song. (2015 Oscar for Best Song)
PoweR: [Kendrick Lamar] not going to go home emptyhanded. He will at the very least win some of his rap categories. He's not in the same position he was in when he went up against Macklemore and Ryan Lewis in majority of his categories. Plus, if he can win two Grammys for "I" [last year], then he is clearly a Grammy favorite. They won't snub him again. (What if Kendrick Lamar gets snubbed again, 0 wins out of 11 nominations?)
interlude: You can't deny [Justin Bieber] made an excellent comeback, matured greatly, and made a huge impact (plus the albums not half bad either). I'd expect some major category nominations, and I'd say whatever he gets is well deserved. (Do you think Justin Bieber will get nominated at next year's Grammys?)
Who do you think will win Oscar? Make your predictions beginning with Best Supporting Actor to the right or at the bottom of this post.
Photo Credits: Sylvester Stallone by HFPA; "Spy" by 20th Century Fox