While the academy expanded its Oscar Best Picture race to 10 nominees in 2009 and then shifted to a sliding scale of between five and 10 in 2011, the BAFTAs have stuck with five. With the exceptions of 2011 when it went three for five and last year when it was off by one all of the BAFTA nominees for Best Picture since 2009 have gone on to contend at the Oscars. After previewing each Oscar Best Picture champ from 2009 to 2013 inclusive, the Brits went with “Boyhood” while the academy embraced “Birdman” in 2014 and opted for “The Revenant” over “Spotlight” last year.
While voting for the BAFTA nominations ended on Jan. 3, the slate of nominees won’t be revealed until Jan. 10. That is just three days before the Jan. 13 deadline for academy members to fill in their nominations ballots for the Oscars. As the two groups have a significant overlap of voters — upwards of 500 — these precursor prizes could well preview which contenders are ahead at the Academy Awards.
Below, our current odds for both the Oscars and BAFTA. “La La Land” has a substantial lead with both groups, followed by “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” albeit in different orders with each. While “Fences” and “Arrival” are in the fourth and fifth slot for the Oscars, two films with British talent — “Lion” and “Florence Foster Jenkins” — are likely to make the final five at BAFTA.
Be sure to make your BAFTA predictions. Weigh in now with your picks. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just hours before nominations are announced on January 10 at 7:30 am GMT. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over these awards and the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.