How do Golden Globes affect Oscars: Who’s up (‘La La Land’) & who’s down (Natalie Portman) after big surprises?

There were numerous surprises at the 2017 Golden Globes on Sunday night, January 8 (see the complete list of winners), so some of us may be scrambling to change our Oscar predictions before those nominations are announced on January 24. But should we bow to temptation?

Maybe we should. These Globe winners were presented right after Oscar voting started last Thursday (January 5), unlike last year when Oscar voting had already concluded by the time the Globes were broadcast. Voting doesn’t end until Friday, January 13, which means these winners may indeed change the momentum of the contest, so what are the most important takeaways?

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UP

La La Land
By the time the Golden Globes aired this modern-day musical romance was already the frontrunner to win the Oscar for Best Picture, so how far up could it really go? Quite a bit as it turns out. Our racetrack odds predicted it would win six out of its seven categories, including Best Film Comedy/Musical. That alone would have been historic, and many of us doubted it could win even that many, but fewer still thought it would win all seven, which sets a new record for the most awarded film in Globes history.

Perhaps it’s too early to declare “La La Land” an unbeatable lock at the Oscars. Maybe it’s peaking too soon. Maybe the tide will turn when industry groups start to pick their winners, as it did two years ago when “Birdman” surged ahead of critics’ darling “Boyhood.” All that is possible, but for now, on the basis of these results, it’s impossible to call this anything but extraordinarily good news for the film.

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Elle
The ship has sailed on the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. The motion picture academy excluded “Elle” from its list of finalists. But the Globes awarding Isabelle Huppert as Best Film Drama Actress against heavy favorite Natalie Portman (“Jackie”), who recently won the Critics’ Choice Award, is a significant statement from the Hollywood Foreign Press, especially after Huppert was snubbed by SAG. It has been nine years since Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”) became the first French-language performer to win Best Actress at the Oscars. Could it happen again?

Nocturnal Animals
This mind-bending meta thriller exceeded our expectations when nominations were announced, picking up bids for Best Director (Tom Ford), Best Screenplay (also Ford) and Best Film Supporting Actor (Aaron Taylor-Johnson). And it exceeded our expectations again by winning for Taylor-Johnson’s performance, upsetting heavy favorite Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”). Going into Golden Globes night Taylor-Johnson still had 100/1 odds of an Oscar nomination, but what about now? The last time the Globe winner for Best Supporting Actor failed to receive an Oscar nomination was Richard Benjamin (“The Sunshine Boys,” 1975) — more than 40 years ago.

2017 Golden Globes complete winners list

DOWN

Manchester by the Sea
While “La La Land” has led the Oscar conversation for Best Picture, Kenneth Lonergan‘s drama about family tragedy in Massachusetts has been locked in a tight battle with “Moonlight” as the year’s strongest drama. In that head-to-head match-up, “Moonlight” came out on top, claiming Best Film Drama. And “Manchester” was also defeated in the race for Best Screenplay, which had seemed like the film’s safest bet. However, Casey Affleck did win Best Film Drama Actor, overcoming a strong challenge by Denzel Washington (“Fences”). And remember, last year “Spotlight” didn’t win any Globes before claiming the Best Picture Oscar, so all is not lost.

“Jackie”
Despite accolades for Natalie Portman’s lead performance as grieving first lady Jackie Kennedy, “Jackie” has underperformed throughout the awards season, and Portman was the film’s only nominee at the Globes. She was expected to win Best Film Drama Actres especially after her victory at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but the aforementioned upset by Isabelle Huppert is yet another roadblock for the film. The good news for Portman is that she won’t have to face Huppert at the SAG Awards, so she’ll have a chance to regain her momentum.

Top 6 biggest Golden Globes shockers: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Isabelle Huppert …

ABOUT THE SAME

“Moonlight”
The night got off to a rocky start for “Moonlight” when Best Supporting Actor frontrunner Ali lost to “Nocturnal Animals” star Taylor-Johnson, but the film narrowly avoided a shut-out by winning the top prize at the end of the night: Best Film Drama. That was certainly a mixed result, but defeating “Manchester” in the top category may now position it well as the strongest possible alternative to “La La Land” at the Oscars. The last film to win Best Film Drama as its only award was “12 Years a Slave,” which went on to claim the top Oscar three years ago.

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think the Golden Globe winners will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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