Experts’ Oscar predictions: ‘La La Land’ will win 9, ‘Manchester by the Sea’ and ‘Moonlight’ 2 each

Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday (Jan. 24) and our 28 experts drawn from major media have been frantically updating their predictions here at Gold Derby. All but one are now backing “La La Land” in the Oscar race for Best Picture, giving this buoyant musical romance leading odds of 9/2. “La La Land” and the character study “Moonlight” have split the major critics awards and the latter could pull off an upset if academy voters want to honor more serious fare.

“La La Land” is in the running for 11 of the 12 guild awards to date, having reaped bids with the producers, directors, actors, writers, art directors, casting directors, cinematographers, costumers, film editors, makeup artists & hair stylists, and sound mixers. It missed out only with the visual effects wizards (The sound editors don’t chime in till the end of the month.) By comparison, “Moonlight” was cited by seven guilds. Among other rivals, the sci-fi flick “Arrival” and the domestic drama “Manchester by the Sea” earned nominations with eight guilds each.

Related Photo Gallery: Top 15 Best Picture Oscar Contenders

“La La Land” is predicted to earn 14 Oscar nominations, tying the record of “All About Eve” (1950) and “Titanic” (1997). Among these will be dual bids for writer/director Damien Chazelle. He is tipped to become the youngest-ever winner of Best Director at age 32 years, and 38 days; Norman Taurog was 32 years and 267 days when he won this award in 1931 for “Skippy.” His hit film, which set a Golden Globes record with seven wins, is on track to claim nine Oscars in all, including actress (Emma Stone), cinematography, film editing, production design, score, song and sound mixing. That haul would would tie it for third on the all-time list with “Gigi” (1958), “The Last Emperor” (1987) and “The English Patient” (1996). Another tuner, “West Side Story,” went 10 for 11 in 1961 while three films — “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “Lord of the Rings; The Return of the King” (2003) — have each claimed a record 11 Oscars.

“Manchester by the Sea,” which debuted to rave reviews at Sundance in January, led when we launched our prediction center in August and still has the backing of one expert. Reminiscent of 1980 Best Picture champ “Ordinary People,” this New York Film Critics Circle winner is now tied for second place with odds of 7/1. Kenneth Lonergan will reap bids for both writing and directing and is favored to win for his original screenplay. Casey Affleck is out front in Best Actor for his work as a grieving brother forced to care for his orphaned nephew (newcomer Lucas Hedges who is sure to contend in supporting) and come to terms with his ex-wife (Michelle Williams in a small but pivotal role).

“Moonlight,” which won Best Drama at the Globes, has likely winners in Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) and Adapted Screenplay (Barry Jenkins) and is tied at second for Best Picture. Jenkins will also earn a nomination for directing as will supporting actress Naomie Harris, lenser James Laxton and composer Nicholas Britell.

Below, our exclusive odds based on the predictions by our experts, including notations of movement over the past week in each category. Be sure to check out individual experts Oscar predictions and the full breakdown of contenders in each category. And then make your own predictions  so that Hollywood insiders can see how your favorites are faring in our Oscar odds.

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BEST PICTURE
1. “La La Land” – 9/2
2. “Manchester by the Sea” – 7/1
3. “Moonlight” – 7/1
4. “Fences” – 10/1
5. “Lion” – 10/1  (up from 12/1)
6. “Arrival ” – 11/1
7. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 14/1
8. “Hell or High Water” – 14/1
9.”Hidden Figures” – 14/1 (up from 16/1)
10. “Silence” – 33/1 (down from 28/1)

Possibilities
11. “Jackie” – 40/1 (down from 33/1)
12. “Loving” – 66/1 (down from 50/1)
13. “Sully” – 100/1
14. “Patriot’s Day” – 100/1
15. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” – 8/5 (up from 7/4)
2. Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” – 4/1
3. Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” – 9/2 (down from 4/1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” – 11/1 (up from 12/1)
5. Martin Scorsese, “Silence” – 20/1 (down from 18/1)

Possibilities
6. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 25/1
7. Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 50/1
8. David Mackenize, “Hell or High Water” – 66/1
9. Garth Davis, “Lion” – 80/1
8. Jeff Nichols, “Loving” – 100/1

BEST ACTOR
1. Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” – 7/4 (up from 9/5)
2. Denzel Washington, “Fences” – 10/3
3. Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” – 5/1 (up from 11/2)
4. Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” – 9/1
5.Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” – 12/1

Possibilities
7. Tom Hanks, “Sully” – 66/1 (down from 33/1)
8. Joel Edgerton, “Loving” – 66/1 (down from 50/1)
8. Michael Keaton, “The Founder” – 100/1
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nocturnal Animals” – 100/1
10. Matthew McConaughey, “Gold” – 100/1

BEST ACTRESS
1. Emma Stone, “La La Land” – 2/1 (up from 9/4)
2. Natalie Portman, “Jackie” – 14/5 (down from 13/5)
3. Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” – 13/2 (up from 8/1)
4. Amy Adams, “Arrival” – 9/1
5. Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” – 16/1 (down from 10/1)

Possibilities
6. Ruth Negga, “Loving” – 18/1 (down from 16/1)
7. Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 18/1 (up from 22/1)
8. Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” – 80/1
9. Sally Field, “My Name is Doris” – 100/1
10. Kate Beckinsale, “Love and Friendship” – 100/1

Find out what will win at the Oscars this year

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
1. Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” – 13/8 (up from 15/8)
2. Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” – 5/1 (down from 9/2)
2. Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” – 5/1 (down from 9/2)
4. Dev Patel, “Lion” – 13/2
5. Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 14/1

Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” – 16/1
7. Issei Ogata, “Silence” – 50/1
8. Liam Neeson, “Silence” – 80/1
9. Kevin Costner, “Hidden Figures” – 80/1
10. Ben Foster, “Hell or High Water” – 100/1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis, “Fences” – 8/5
2. Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” – 4/1
3. Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” – 5/1
4. Nicole Kidman, “Lion” – 7/1 (up from 15/2)
5. Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” – 9/1

Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women” – 50/1
7. Janelle Monae, “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
8. Felicity Jones, “A Monster Calls” – 100/1
9. Margo Martindale, “The Hollars” – 100/1
10. Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals” – 100/1

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. “Moonlight” – 2/1 (up from 21/10 )
2. “Fences” – 4/1
3. “Arrival” – 5/1
4. “Lion ” – 8/1
6. “Hidden Figures” – 12/1 (up from 20/1)

Possibilities
5. “Nocturnal Animals” – 14/1 (down from 12/1)
7. “Silence” – 40/1 (down from 33/1)
8. “A Monster Calls” – 80/1
9. “Love and Friendship” – 80/1
10. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 100/1

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. “Manchester by the Sea” – 17/10 (down from 8/5)
2. “La La Land” – 7/2
3. “Hell or High Water” – 5/1
4. “Jackie” – 10/1 (down from 9/1)
5. “The Lobster” – 16/1

Possibilities
6. “Captain Fantastic” – 18/1 (up from 33/1)
7. “20th Century Women” – 40/1
8. “Zootopia” – 100/1
9. “Cafe Society” – 100/1
10. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 100/1

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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. “La La Land” – 9/5 (up from 15/8)
4. “Moonlight” – 5/1 (up from 11/2)
3. “Arrival” – 11/2 (down from 5/1)
4. “Silence” – 6/1 (down from 5/1)
5. “Jackie” – 12/1 (down from 10/1)

Possibilities
6. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 40/1 (up from 50/1)
7. “Nocturnal Animals” – 80/1
8. “Live By Night” – 100/1
10. “Hail, Caeasar” – 100/1
11. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 100/1

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. “Jackie” – 2/1
2. “La La Land” – 10/3
2. “Florence Foster Jenkins” – 6/1 (up from 13/2)
4. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 9/1 (up from 10/1)
4. “Silence” – 12/1 (down from 10/1)

Possibilities
6. “Allied” – 20/1
7. “Live By Night” – 50/1
8. “Love and Friendship” – 66/1
9. “Hidden Figures” – 66/1
10. “Captain Fantastic” – 100/1

BEST FILM EDITING
1. “La La Land” – 7/4 (up from 9/5)
2. “Moonlight” – 5/1 (up from 11/2)
3. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 13/2 (up from 7/1)
4. “Arrival” – 9/1
5. “Jackie” – 14/1 (down from 12/1)

Possibilities
6. “Manchester by the Sea” – 16/1 (up from 18/1)
7. “Silence” – 20/1 (down from 12/1)
8. “Sully” – 40/1 (down from 33/1)
9. “The Jungle Book” – 40/1
10. “Hell or High Water” – 66/1

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1.”Florence Foster Jenkins” – 17/10 (up from 7/3)
2. “Deadpool” – 3/1 (up from 7/2)
3. “Star Trek Beyond” – 7/1 (down from 13/2)

Possibilities
4. “Hail, Caesar” – 25/1 (down from 20/1)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. “La La Land” – 9/5  (up from 19/10)
2. “Jackie” – 11/2
3. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 13/2 (up from 7/1)
4. -“Silence” – 9/1 (down from 6/1)
5. “Arrival” – 11/1 (up from 16/1)

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 20/1 (down from 18/1)
7. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 22/1
8. “Live By Night” – 50/1 (down from 40/1)
9. “Fences” – 80/1
10. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 80/1

BEST SCORE
1. “La La Land” – 3/2 (up from 8/5)
2. “Jackie” – 13/2
3. “Moonlight”- 7/1
4. “Lion” – 9/1 (up from 10/1)
5. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 10/1 (up from 11/1)

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 28/1
7. “Nocturnal Animals” 50/1
8. “Florence Foster Jenkins – 66/1 (down from 50/1)
8. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 100/1
10. “Hidden Figures” – 100/1

BEST SONG
1. “City of Stars” from “La La Land” – 7/4 (down from 3/2)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana” – 7/2 (up from 4/1)
3. “Audition” from “La La Land” – 6/1 (up from 7/1)
4. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from “Trolls”- 15/2 (down from 7/1)
5. “Runnin” from “Hidden Figures” – 18/1
5. “Try Everything” from “Zootopia” – 18/1

Possibilities
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from “Sing Street” – 40/1 (down from 33/1)
8. “Faith” from “Sing” – 66/1
9. “Gold” from “Gold” – 100/1
10. “I See a Victory” from “Hidden Figures” – 100/1

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 12/5 (down from 21/10)
2. “La La Land” – 4/1 (up from 9/2)
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 5/1
4. “Arrival” – 9/1
5. “Silence” – 12/1 (down from 10/1)

Possibilities
6. “The Jungle Book” – 12/1
7. “Deepwater Horizon” – 33/1
8. “Sully” – 50/1
9. “Doctor Strange” – 100/1
10. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”- 100/1

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. “La La Land” – 17/10
2. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 4/1
3. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 6/1 (down from 11/2)
4. “Arrival” – 8/1 (up from 9/1)
5. “The Jungle Book” – 14/1 (down from 16/1)

Possibilities
5. “Silence” – 16/1 (down from 14/1)
7. “Sully” – 40/1
8. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 80/1
9. “Deepwater Horizon” – 80/1
10. “Passengers” – 100/1

BEST  VISUAL EFFECTS
1. “The Jungle Book” – 2/1
2. “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” – 7/2 (up from 4/1)
3. “Doctor Strange” – 4/1
4. “Arrival” -15/2 (down from 7/1)
5. “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” – 8/1

Possibilities
6. “Captain America: Civil War” – 40/1 (up from 50/1)
7. “The BFG” – 100/1
8. “Passengers” – 100/1
9. “Deepwater Horizon” – 100/1
10. “Kubo and the Two Strings”- 100/1

Predict the Oscar nominations now; change them till January 24

Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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