The SAG Awards for film are one of the most important stops on the Oscar season campaign trail. Academy Award frontrunner “La La Land” wasn’t nominated for Best Film Ensemble here, but only 11 of the 21 winners of SAG’s top category went on to claim the Best Picture Oscar (52%), so that slight may not ultimately hurt “La La Land” in the long run. But the individual acting categories have a stronger correlation with their corresponding Oscar races.
A whopping 18 out of 22 SAG winners for Best Actor repeated at the Oscars (82%), while one other winner in that race (Benicio Del Toro in “Traffic,” 2000) won Oscar in the supporting category. Best Actress has matched Oscar 16 out of 22 times (73%). Fifteen SAG victors for Best Supporting Actress out of 22 also claimed Oscar (68%), while a 16th winner (Kate Winslet in “The Reader,” 2008) prevailed at the Oscars in the lead category. There is more wiggle room in the Best Supporting Actor race, which has lined up only 13 times out of 22 (59%).
So what do you think of this year’s crop of winners (and losers) from the 2017 Screen Actors Guild Awards, which aired January 29 on TNT and TBS? Read our blog on the film contests below, and check out the complete list of winners.
BEST FILM ENSEMBLE
“Hidden Figures” surprised awards watchers by claiming Best Film Ensemble against “Moonlight,” “Fences” and “Manchester by the Sea.” The cast is led by Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer and Janelle Monae as the unsung black women who were invaluable in the NASA space program. Curiously, “Hidden Figures” was not sent to SAG voters on DVDs like most of its rivals. It was only available to be seen via online streaming or at movie theaters.
Denzel Washington (“Fences”) upset presumed favorite Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) for his performance as a working class Pittsburgh father in the adaptation of August Wilson‘s classic play. Washington’s victory is significant in many ways: it was the first SAG Award of Washington’s career, and he directed himself to the victory as well.
Following her Golden Globe win, Emma Stone (“La La Land”) won in a close race against Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) and Meryl Streep (“Florence Foster Jenkins”) for her role as an aspiring actress who falls in love with a jazz musician. This is the first individual SAG Award for Stone, but she previously won two Ensemble prizes for her performances in “The Help” (2011) and “Birdman” (2014).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
After his surprise loss at the Golden Globes, Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) got his awards campaign back on track with an expected win at the SAG Awards. This was his first SAG victory. In addition to his SAG nominations tonight for Best Film Ensemble for both “Moonlight” and “Hidden Figures,” he was previously nominated as a member of the ensemble cast of the TV drama series “House of Cards.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis has long been the Oscar frontrunner for her role as the wife of an overbearing husband in “Fences,” so it was no surprise that she prevailed at the SAG Awards. This was actually the fifth SAG Award of her career, following two victories for the TV drama “How to Get Away with Murder” and two for her individual and ensemble performances in the film “The Help” (2011).
BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
The first award of the night, announced before the telecast, went to the stunt performers for Mel Gibson‘s war film “Hacksaw Ridge,” which prevailed over “Jason Bourne,” “Nocturnal Animals” and a pair of Marvel superhero films: “Captain America: Civil War” and “Doctor Strange.” Our racetrack odds predicted this result; “Hacksaw Ridge” was likely helped by its strong overall support from the industry; it earned six Oscar nominations including Best Picture, and it earned an additional SAG nomination for Best Actor (Andrew Garfield).
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 26 at 5:00 pm PT/8:00 pm ET. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.