Best Picture Oscar predictions by experts: ‘Dunkirk’ now challenged by ‘Get Out’ after strong SAG Awards showing

In the wake of the SAG Awards nominations on Dec. 13, our 26 Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their Best Picture predictions. Longtime frontrunner “Dunkirk” has seen its lead cut by one-third, with only nine experts now predicting Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic to prevail. That is down from an even dozen at the beginning of the month. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

Five of our Oscar prognosticators are now backing Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out,” which had a surprisingly strong showing at SAG with bids for both the film’s star Daniel Kaluyya and its cast. While it picked up the votes of two experts, Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post” lost two experts after being snubbed by the guild. That was a shocker as we had been predicting individual nominations for Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks who portray publisher Katharine Graham and editor Ben Bradlee respectively as well as one for the ensemble.

Our other seven experts are split among five films. Two are enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name,” which was the big winner at LAFCA. Two experts are taken with Martin McDonagh‘s character study “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” And three other films have one vote each: Joe Wright‘s biopic “Darkest Hour,” Greta Gerwig‘s charmer “Lady Bird” and Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

BEST PICTURE
1. “Dunkirk”: Nine experts (13/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

2. “The Post”: Five experts (13/2 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

3. “Lady Bird”: One expert (8/1 odds)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)

4. “Call Me By Your Name”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

5. “Get Out”: Five experts (17/2 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Matthew Jacob (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

6. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

7. “The Shape of Water”: One expert (9/1 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (16/1 odds)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)

9. “The Florida Project”: (18/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (33/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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