Best Picture Oscar predictions by experts: ‘Dunkirk’ barely ahead of ‘The Post’ after Golden Globe nominations

In the wake of the Golden Globes nominations on Dec. 11, our 26 Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their Best Picture predictions. Longtime frontrunner “Dunkirk” has seen its lead cut by one-third, with only nine experts now predicting Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic to prevail. That is down from an even dozen at the beginning of the month. (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

Seven of our Oscar prognosticators are now backing Steven Spielberg‘s docudramaThe Post,” which chronicles the fight by the Washington Post to publish papers related to the Vietnam War. It reaped Golden Globe nominations for Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks who portray publisher Katharine Graham and editor Ben Bradlee respectively.

Our other 10 experts are split among five films. Three are impressed by Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out” and another three are enamored with Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name,” which was the big winner at LAFCA. Two experts are taken with Martin McDonagh‘s character study “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” And two other films have one vote each: Joe Wright‘s biopic “Darkest Hour” and Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

1. “Dunkirk”: Nine experts (13/2 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)
Susan Wloszczyna (

2. “The Post”: Seven experts (7/1 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times

3. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Two experts (8/1 odds)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

4. “Call Me By Your Name”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

5. “Lady Bird”: (9/1 odds)

6. “The Shape of Water”: One expert (9/1 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)

7. “Get Out”: Three experts (9/1 odds)
Matthew Jacob (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (14/1 odds)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)

9. “The Florida Project”: (18/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (33/1 odds)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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