After the onslaught of nominations from the SAG, Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice awards, let’s take a deep breath and consider what they all mean. Eight lead and seven supporting players reaped bids with all three of these precursor prizes. How likely are they to number among the 20 performers who earn Oscar nominations?
Since the Critics’ Choice Awards introduced nominations in 2001, there have been only 17 instances when a performer nominated for all three of these awards did not go on to contend at the Oscars; the most recent of these was last year when Amy Adams (“Arrival”) was snubbed in the Best Actress race.
She was the only one of the 14 performers with nominations across the board who failed to contend at the Academy Awards. In 2015, 11 of the 13 who pulled off this triple play went on to reap Oscar bids; the two that missed out were featured players Helen Mirren (“Trumbo”) and Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”). In 2014, 16 of 18 were nominated for Oscars, with only leads Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nightcrawler”) and Jennifer Aniston (“Cake”) snubbed. In 2013, only three of the 17 performers with bids across the board were overlooked at the Oscars: leads Tom Hanks “Captain Phillips” and Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks”) and supporting player Daniel Bruhl (“Rush”).
Conversely, 16 Oscar nominations (of the 340 across the four acting categories) went to folks who had not contended for any of these precursor prizes. The most recent two of these were in 2014: lead actor Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”) and supporting actress Laura Dern (“Wild”). And in 2013, Jonah Hill (“The Wolf of Wall Street”) surprised in Supporting Actor.
So, where are we at this year? Let’s take a closer look at each of the acting races by examining who has run the board so far and who could still pull off a surprise on Oscar nominations morning.
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name” (Drama at Globes)
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” (Drama at Globes)
Oldman and Chalemet are the top two contenders according to our Oscar experts while Franco is in fourth and Kaluuya is just outside the top five. Our number three and four contenders — Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread”) and Tom Hanks (“The Post”) — reaped Globe and Critics’ Choice bids but were snubbed by SAG.
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” (Drama at Globes)
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Drama at Globes)
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” (Comedy/Musical at Globes)
All four number among our top five Oscar contenders, as does Meryl Streep (“The Post), who contends at the Globe and Critics’ Choice awards but not SAG.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Dafoe and Rockwell are jockeying for first place according to our Oscar experts while Jenkins just makes the top. “Call Me By Your Name” featured players Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg are in third and fourth respectively; both were snubbed by SAG while Stuhlbarg was also overlooked by the Globes.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Metcalf is the clear Oscar frontrunner say our experts while Janney is a strong second. Blige is back in fourth while Chau is ranked fifth. Holly Hunter (“The Big Sick”), who was snubbed by the Globes, sits in third.
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name stars can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.