2018 Oscars Best Picture predictions: Experts torn between ‘Dunkirk,’ ‘Get Out,’ ‘Lady Bird’ and ‘The Post’

With just two weeks till Academy Awards nominations voting begins, our 27 Oscar experts from major media outlets have been busy updating their Best Picture predictions. The longtime frontrunner, “Dunkirk,” still has seven experts in its corner; however, that is down from a dozen votes at the start of the month for Christopher Nolan‘s WWII epic.

Two other contenders — Greta Gerwig‘s coming-of-age charmer “Lady Bird” and Steven Spielberg‘s docudrama “The Post” — also have leading odds of 7/1. While those films only have the votes of five and four experts respectively, the rest of our prognosticators are ranking them highly enough that their overall support is equal to that of “Dunkirk.” (See the individual rankings by experts and the resulting odds.)

Five more of our Oscarologists are backing Jordan Peele‘s social satire “Get Out,” which had a surprisingly strong showing at SAG with bids for both the film’s star Daniel Kaluyya and its cast. And with most of the other experts putting the picture in one of their top five slots, it now has odds of 8/1 to win Best Picture.

Our other six experts are split among four films. Two experts are taken with Guillermo del Toro‘s fantasy “The Shape of Water” and two more endorse Martin McDonagh‘s character study “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Two other films have one vote apiece:  Luca Guadagnino‘s romance “Call Me By Your Name,” which was the big winner at LAFCA, and Joe Wright‘s Winston Churchill biopic “Darkest Hour.”

See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to the likelihood of winning in the key races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see the other categories.

Here’s how the Oscar Best Picture predictions break down by expert as well as the most up-to-date odds for each of the top 10 contenders to win:

BEST PICTURE
1. “Dunkirk”: Seven experts (7/1 odds)
Tim Gray (Variety)
Dave Karger (IMDB)
Michael Musto (NewNowNext)
Krista Smith (Vanity Fair)
Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
Sara Vilkomerson (Entertainment Weekly)

2. “The Post”: Four experts (7/1 odds)
Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life)
Andrea Mandell (USA Today)
Jack Mathews (Gold Derby)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)

3. “Lady Bird”: Five experts (7/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby)
Erik Davis (Fandango)
Joyce Eng (TV Guide)
Glenn Whipp, Los Angeles Times
Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com)

4. “Get Out”: Five experts (8/1 odds)
Edward Douglas (Tracking Board)
Matthew Jacob (Huffington Post)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
Chris Rosen (EW)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)

5. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
Brian Truitt (USA Today)

6. “The Shape of Water”: Two experts (17/2 odds)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Adnan Virk (ESPN)

7. “Call Me By Your Name”: Two experts (9/1 odds)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere)

8. “Darkest Hour”: One expert (18/1 odds)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)

9. “The Florida Project”: (18/1 odds)

10. “Mudbound”: (28/1 odds)

2018 Oscars Best Picture: Experts Predictions

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Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.

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