Breaking down the precursor awards — both nominations and winners — as well as the top Oscar nominations by categories gives us 35 key categories that will determine the strongest Oscar contenders. These races range from this month’s Critics Choice nominations all the way to the Oscar nominations, with stops along the way for the guilds, the Golden Globes and the BAFTAS.
Different films will have different strengths: some will do well with acting, others with writing and directing and some will pop up here and there. To be a strong Oscar contender, a film needs to be represented across a range of races.
Last year, Damien Chazelle‘s “La La Land” was the leader of the pack, with a total of 31 boxes ticked out of 35; it only missed out on the nomination and win boxes for SAG Film Ensemble and a writing win at BAFTA and WGA for Chazelle. It was the heavy favorite, of course, but Barry Jenkins “Moonlight” shocked us all and won Best Picture after ticking 26 boxes (the second highest tally) while Denis Villeneuve‘s “Arrival” had a tally of 17.
This year’s counting has already started with the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes nominations. Three films got the maximum possible tally of five at this early stage: “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Each of these three earned a Critics Choice Best Picture nomination and bids at the Globes for acting, directing, writing and Best Picture. They have clear strength across the board in all areas of filmmaking.
“Lady Bird” has four ticks so far with Greta Gerwig having missed out on a Globe directing nomination.
“Call Me By Your Name” was snubbed in both the Screenplay and Directing categories at the Golden Globes, leaving it with three boxes ticked. Also on three are “Get Out” and “Dunkirk.” “Get Out” missed out on a Globe Screenplay nominations but Daniel Kaluuya did get nominated for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical. While “Dunkirk” got all the expected nominations but it will be limited in the number of ticks it can get as it is not predicted to reap any acting bids.
SAG – Screen Actors Guild
PGA – Producers Guild of America
DGA – Directors Guild of America
ACE – Editors Guild
Critics Choice, Best Picture – NOMINATION
Critics Choice, Best Picture – WIN
Golden Globe, Best Picture – NOMINATION (Comedy/Musical or Drama)
Golden Globe, Best Picture – WIN (Comedy/Musical or Drama)
Golden Globe, Directing – NOMINATION
Golden Globe, Directing – WIN
Golden Globe, Acting – NOMINATION (Any category)
Golden Globe, Acting – WIN (Any category)
Golden Globe, Writing – NOMINATION
Golden Globe, Writing – WIN
BAFTA, Best Picture – NOMINATION
BAFTA, Best Picture – WIN
BAFTA, Directing – NOMINATION
BAFTA, Directing – WIN
BAFTA, Acting – NOMINATION
BAFTA, Acting – WIN
BAFTA, Writing – NOMINATION
BAFTA, Writing – WIN
SAG, Singular Performance – NOMINATION
SAG, Singular Performance – WIN
SAG, Ensemble Cast – NOMINATION
SAG, Ensemble Cast – WIN
PGA – NOMINATION
PGA – WIN
DGA – NOMINATION
DGA – WIN
WGA – NOMINATION
WGA – WIN
ACE – NOMINATION
ACE – WIN
Oscar, Directing – NOMINATION
Oscar, Acting – NOMINATION
Oscar, Writing – NOMINATION
Oscar, Editing – NOMINATION
Love Across the Board? (Over 5 Total Nominations)
Be sure to make your Oscar nomination predictions so that Hollywood studio executives can see how their films are faring in our Academy Awards odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominees are announced on January 23.