2018 SAG Awards nominations: Editors debate ‘The Post’ snub, and why ‘Lady Bird’ and ‘Get Out’ could win Oscar [VIDEO AND PODCAST]

“Oh my God, the impossible has happened!” says Gold Derby editor Tom O’Neil when discussing the shocking SAG Awards nominations with Chris Beachum, Paul Sheehan, Marcus James Dixon, and Daniel Montgomery. “The Post” was shut out across the board, while other films did better than expected, including “Get Out,” “The Big Sick,” and nominations leader “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” So what could win? And what does this mean for the Oscar race for Best Picture? Watch our editors’ slugfest above, or listen to the podcast version at the bottom of this post.

So did the SAG Awards nominating committee — which comprises 2,500 members of the SAG-AFTRA union — just not like “The Post”? “I don’t buy any of that,” Beachum argues. “‘The Post’ was not seen by enough SAG voters.” The film was shot, edited, and completed at lightning speed earlier this year by Steven Spielberg and his crew, so it didn’t start screening for press and industry members until late November.

Dixon doesn’t think that should have mattered, though, arguing, “‘The Post’ is not a film that you need to watch in order to vote for its ensemble … This is an all-star cast for the ages. Yes, maybe they didn’t get into the screenings, but did they need to? … It should have gotten in.” But Sheehan points out that this may just be a bump in the road for “The Post” on the way to the Oscars: “It’s an important film, made even more important by the current political climate. We’re going to be pleasantly surprised come Oscar nominations.”

However you explain the surprises, the SAG Awards are an important stop on the awards campaign trail “because no film since ‘Braveheart’ has won Best Picture at the Oscars without at least a nomination in the ensemble-cast category at the SAG Awards,” Montgomery explains. “This certainly changes the complexion of the race.” So who benefits most from these nominations? Beachum says, “I’ve got ‘Lady Bird’ winning the Oscar now for Best Picture.” And O’Neil adds, “When we see ‘Get Out’ now penetrate not only an ensemble nomination but a [Male Actor in a Leading Role] nomination, we’ve got to take this for real. It’s not just critics going crazy, and it’s not just Gotham Awards and Indie Spirits. It’s in the race. So is ‘Mudbound’ now. These movies have crossed over, as ‘The Big Sick’ has … Wow, this race is changing every day.”

Be sure to make your SAG predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on January 21. And join in the fierce debate over the 2018 SAG Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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