The winner of the Golden Eddie from the American Cinema Editors has proven to be one of the best indicators of which film takes home the Best Picture Oscar. Nominations for the 2017 edition of these awards will be announced on Jan. 3, with the winners revealed on Jan. 27.
Since 1990, the film that came up with the ACE went on to win the top prize at the Academy Awards 17 times. And in seven of the nine years when the ACE barometer was wrong, the Eddie champ was at least a contender for Best Picture, including last year when both the drama winner (“Mad Max: Fury Road”) and the comedy champ (“The Big Short”) were among the seven Best Picture nominees that lost the Oscar to “Spotlight.”
In 2007 neither of the Eddie winners — “The Bourne Ultimatum” nor “Sweeney Todd” — made the final five contenders for Best Picture at the Oscars, and in 1999 the same fate befell “The Matrix” and “Being John Malkovich.”
Though ACE has a good track record as a Best Picture predictor and a great one for forecasting who will win the Editing Oscar (20 out of the last 26 years), it is surprising that it is not all-knowing when it comes to the Editing Oscar nominations. Since 1992, when the Eddies went to five nominees from three, 105 of the 120 Oscar nominees for Editing had first reaped a Golden Eddie nod; that is an accuracy rate of 87.5%.
Although this track record appears impressive enough, ACE doubled its chances of getting it right when it split Dramas and Comedy/Musicals into separate kudos in 1999. Eight years ago, the Comedy/Musical Eddie went to Stephen Schaffer for “WALL-E.” Schaffer — a 2004 nominee for “The Incredibles” — made history with this win as it was the first time an animated film had taken one of these kudos since they were first handed out back in 1950.
This year, we have 27 Oscar experts drawn from major media making predictions at Gold Derby. Their line-up for Best Film Editing at the Oscars is led by Best Picture frontrunner “La La Land.” That film is all but certain to reap a bid in the comedy/musical category at the ACE Eddie Awards. Also look for the cutters of the dramas “Moonlight,” “Jackie,” “Hacksaw Ridge” and “Silence” to contend there first. Be sure to let us know in the comments section at the bottom of this post your picks to fill out each category at the ACE Eddie Awards.
Below, our exclusive odds for Best Film Editing at the Oscars based on the predictions by our experts. Be sure to check out individual experts Oscar predictions and the full breakdown of contenders in each category. And then make your own predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how your favorites are faring in our Oscar odds.
1. “La La Land” – 9/5
2. “Moonlight” – 11/2
3. “Jackie” – 9/1
4. “Hacksaw Ridge” – 9/1
5. “Silence” – 10/1
6. “Arrival” – 16/1
7. “Manchester by the Sea” – 28/1
8. “Sully” – 33/1
9. “The Jungle Book” – 40/1
10. “Hell or High Water” – 66/1
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.