“Big Little Lies” has been the Emmy frontrunner for Best Limited Series since the nominations were announced in July. Actually, it’s the frontrunner in every category it’s nominated for at the primetime telecast this Sunday, September 17. That includes Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor, where Alexander Skarsgard has the lead for his role as an abusive husband, but based on our predictions this will be its closest race. As of this writing Skarsgard leads with odds of 6/5, which translates to a 45% chance of winning.
These official racetrack odds are based on the latest predictions of Expert TV journalists, Gold Derby’s own Editors, the Top 24 Users who got the high scores in last year’s Emmy predictions, the All-Star Top 24 who scored high in the last two years’ combined Emmy predix, and thousands of total Users who are our largest and often smartest predictions bloc.
Skarsgard’s biggest threat is Alfred Molina, who gets 10/3 odds, or a 24% chance of winning for his role as real-life “What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?” director Robert Aldrich in “Feud: Bette and Joan.” Molina was nominated once before in this category, for “The Normal Heart” in 2014, but he has never won an Emmy. Neither has Skarsgard, but voters might consider a veteran character actor like Molina more due for a victory.
Another veteran actor, David Thewlis (“Fargo”), also has a possibility of upsetting, ranked third with 13/2 odds, or a 14% chance of victory. And we might also be underestimating Molina’s “Feud” co-star Stanley Tucci, who is the only past Emmy winner in this category — in fact, he has three victories out of seven previous bids. But he trails with 12/1 odds, which gives him just an 8% chance of winning. Both Thewlis and Tucci play mustache twirling villains, Thewlis as a sociopathic corporate raider and killer and Tucci as cynical studio head Jack Warner. Emmy voters typically love showy performances, so watch out for them both.
That leaves two actors from “The Night Of,” Bill Camp and Michael Kenneth Williams, each lurking with 20/1 odds, or a 5% chance of coming out on top. But if last weekend’s Creative Arts Emmys are any indication, we might be underestimating “The Night Of” across the board. The limited series won four awards, making it one of the weekend’s most honored programs. However, those awards were for picture editing, cinematography, sound editing, and sound mixing, so they don’t tell us how the actors branch will greet it this weekend.
What do you think? Is this really one of the most unpredictable categories of the year?
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