2017 American Music Awards predictions: Rihanna battles Lady Gaga for Pop/Rock Female Artist

It’s difficult to forecast the 2017 American Music Awards race for Favorite Pop/Rock Female Artist because while two out of the three nominees are past winners, it’s been at least seven years since either has won, and they’re up against a relative newcomer whose fan support we may be underestimating. Nevertheless, our users are betting on Rihanna to take home the prize for the second time in her career.

As of this writing Rihanna gets leading odds of 6/5 based on our users’ predictions, especially our most elite users. She has support from 15 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s AMAs. And she’s also backed by 16 of our All-Star Top 24, who were the top predictors when you combine the last two years’ AMA results. This is Rihanna’s fifth nomination in the category, which ties her with Barbra Streisand as the eighth most cited artist in this race, but she hasn’t won since her very first bid in 2008. She subsequently lost in 2012 to Katy Perry, in 2013 to Taylor Swift, and in 2016 to Selena Gomez. However, Rihanna has proven popular at these fan-voted kudos, with 11 competitive wins including three in 2016 alone.

Also good news for Rihanna is that she’s not up against any of the artists who have bested her before. Instead she faces Lady Gaga, who is nominated for the fourth time but has never gone head-to-head against Rihanna in this race. Gaga currently ranks second with 23/10 odds, including support from five of our Top 24 and five of our All-Stars. This is her first nomination in the category since earning three bids in a row from 2009 to 2011 (winning in 2010).

But we mustn’t count out Alessia Cara, who is nominated here for the first time. The 21-year-old Canadian singer-songwriter is the youngest nominee in this race, and that could be an advantage since the last two winners — Ariana Grande in 2015 and Gomez in 2016 –have skewed to an especially young audience. She’s right in the thick of it with 3/1 odds and support from four of our Top 24 and three All-Stars.

So who’s right? Will one of the past winners celebrate another victory, or will the newcomer steal the trophy out from under them?

Be sure to make your CMA predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see this year’s contenders are faring in our CMA odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on November 8. And join the discussion on this and more taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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