American Society of Cinematographers Awards prediction: Oscar frontrunner ‘La La Land’ will win

Oscar frontrunner Linus Sandgren (“La La Land”) is all but certain to win the American Society of Cinematographers award for Best Feature Film at the 31st annual edition of these kudos on Saturday (Feb. 4). He has leading odds of 2/13 to take home this precursor prize.

Also contending for this top guild honor are the other four Oscar nominees — Greig Fraser (“Lion”), James Laxton (Moonlight”), Rodrigo Prieto (“Silence”) and Bradford Young (“Arrival”).

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Prieto, who has contended with the guild twice before (“Frida,”2002; “Brokeback Mountain” 2005) and at the Oscars for the latter film, has odds of 12/1 to win with the ASC award on his third try. The other nominees are all first-timers both with both the guild and the academy. Young is at 33/1 while Laxton, who won a slew of critics awards, is at 40/1 and Fraser rounds out the race at 80/1.

Over its 31-year history, the ASC has predicted 123 of the 155 Oscar nominees, including all five of this year’s contenders. That success rate of 79% is in stark contrast to its track record at previewing the eventual Oscar winner. The ASC choice for the best in the business has gone on to claim an Oscar bookend only 16 times in three decades (53%).

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Besides Emmanuel Lubezki‘s historic three wins a row for “Gravity,” “Birdman” and “The Revenant” beginning in 2013, the other repeat champs were:

Dean Semler, “Dances with Wolves” (1990)
John Toll, “Braveheart” (1995)
John Seale, “The English Patient” (1996)
Russell Carpenter, “Titanic” (1997)
Conrad L. Hall, “American Beauty” (1999)
Conrad L. Hall, “Road to Perdition” (2002)
Dion Beebe, “Memoirs of a Geisha” (2005)
Robert Elswit, “There Will Be Blood” (2007)
Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008)
Wally Pfister, “Inception” (2010)

Predict the ASC winners now; change them till February 4

Be sure to make your ASC predictions. Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films are faring in our ASC odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before winners are announced on February 4. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over all the film awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.

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