Longtime Best Actress Oscar frontrunner Emma Stone (“La La Land”) faces a fierce challenge from Natalie Portman (“Jackie”), who won this race six years ago for “Black Swan.” Each now has the backing of 13 of our 28 Oscar experts derived from major media outlets. That is a big shift from four weeks ago when Stone led by 17 experts to six. Since then, Portman picked up the Best Actress prize at the Critics’ Choice Awards, which has previewed the last three Oscar winners. Both Portman and Stone are predicted to win their races in drama and comedy/musical respectively at this Sunday’s Globes.
Annette Bening, who lost one of her three Best Actress bids to Portman (she was up for “The Kids Are All Right”), has the votes of two experts for her role as a free-spirited mother in “20th Century Women.” Rounding out our top five are five-time Oscar also-ran Amy Adams (“Arrival”) and critics darling Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”).
Stone has a slight edge over Portman in our odds — 12/5 versus 5/2 — because of how the rest of the experts not predicting them to win have them ranked. Likewise, Bening has the same odds of 9/1 as Adams and Huppert.
See how our experts rank Oscar contenders according to likelihood of winning in all top races. Use the drop-down menus at the top of each page to see other categories. And see individual experts’ Oscar predictions as well.
1. Emma Stone, “La La Land” (12/5 odds)
Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Dave Karger (IMDB), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Jack Mathews (Gold Derby) Kevin Polowy (Yahoo), Christopher Rosen (Entertainment Weekly), Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly), Brian Truitt (USA Today), Adnan Virk (ESPN), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times).
2. Natalie Portman, “Jackie” (5/2 odds)
Erik Davis (Fandango), Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life), Tim Gray (Variety), Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Michael Musto (Out.com), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Susan Wloszczyna (RogetEbert.com).
3. Amy Adams, “Arrival” (9/1 odds)
4. Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” (9/1 odds)
5. Annette Bening, “20th Century Women” (9/1 odds)
Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (Indiewire)
6. Ruth Negga, “Loving” (12/1 odds)
7. Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” (33/1 odds)
8. Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures” (66/1 odds)
8. Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane” (100/1 odds)
10. Emily Blunt, “The Girl on the Train” (100/1 odds)
Be sure to make your Oscar predictions. How do you think “La La Land” will do with academy voters? Weigh in now with your picks so that Hollywood insiders can see how this film is faring in our Oscar odds. You can keep changing your predictions right up until just before nominations are announced on January 24 at 5:00 am PT/8:00 am ET. Be sure to read our contest rules. And join in the fierce debate over the Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our forums.