With two days to go before the winner of “Big Brother” Season 19 is crowned, the competition is down to the final three: Season 18 runner-up and the only veteran to return for this cycle Paul Abrahamian, reigning meatball and pots-and-pans musician Josh Martinez, and season-long scooter rider Christmas Abbott. Below, I break down the current “Big Brother” odds for where we’re predicting each player to finish, and I offer my own assessment of who is best positioned to win. Read my thoughts on each of the players, listed from the most powerful to the least, and then update your predictions before the Season 19 finale.
1. Paul Abrahamian (8/11 odds to win)
At this point, given everything that has transpired over the last two weeks — namely, every single one of Paul’s elaborate plans working out perfectly — it’d be silly to not consider Paul a virtual lock to win. Objectively, Paul has run the house for the entire season and has single-handedly dictated every eviction, regardless of what Raven Walton wants to believe. The chances that Paul will emerge victorious in the final Head of Household competition are high and he’s eyeing Josh as his ideal Final 2, believing he can beat him more easily than he can beat Christmas. If there’s any potential blind spot in Paul’s game it’s that the jury might prove to be more bitter than he is anticipating. During Thursday night’s jury check-in segment we got glimpses of both Mark Jansen and Jason Dent being soured to the idea of Paul winning and we know that Cody Nickson is not his biggest fan either. And since he betrayed her, Paul’s ability to secure Alex Ow‘s vote will be determined by her willingness to be bitter or not. The good news for Paul is, based on Raven and Matt Clines‘ delusions that they were Paul’s closest allies, he’s almost certainly assured at least two votes in his favor. I think the biggest test for Paul will be jury questions because he’ll have Kevin Schlehuber, one of Christmas/Josh, both Alex/Jason and Matt/Raven on the jury, all of whom at one point believed they were Paul’s second in command — if any of them ask him who is true alliance was with he’ll have to damage his reputation with a whole host of potential loyalists and that could spell disaster for his hopes to win. In a Paul/Josh finale, I think we’re looking at Alex and Kevin as swing votes to tip the win in either’s favor.
2. Josh Martinez (9/2 odds to win)
As of Friday morning, Josh was looking like our third place finisher — at the time, he was a longshot in the race to win and had a large lead in the predictions to take third place. Over the weekend he gained some ground and is now mostly even with Christmas in the hunt for second place. I am one of the few that believes he has a better shot to win than Paul. If it’s true that Paul intends to bring Josh to the Final 2 with him and the jury remains bitter then Josh could very easily take the prize. Aside from that, if either Christmas or Josh is poised to beat Paul for the final HOH, it’s Josh and we already know that not only has he been itching to evict Paul, but has a very close relationship with Christmas and wants to be at the end with her. In a decision between Josh and Christmas it’s hard to say which way the jury will lean because they’ve played together for most of the season, but if Josh can prove that he’s been less of a Paul lackey than Christmas was, I think he’ll earn the respect he needs to win. I also have to admit that I have a soft spot for the kid because out of everyone in the house (except for Cody and Jessica Graf), Josh was the only one that wised up to Paul’s manipulative tactics and seemed willing to go against him. In that regard it’s unfortunate that he never got the chance, but it still speaks highly of how aware he was of the mechanics of the game while deep in the trenches of Paul’s domination.
3. Christmas Abbott (9/2 odds to win)
There are two things I find impressive about the game Christmas played, but neither of them are particularly flattering. The first is how amazing her luck is to have gotten injured early in the season. Without the injury, Christmas would have been a huge target in the house — a physical competitor and opinionated strategist rather than a player that had to sit out nearly half of the challenges and could only win HOH if other players threw the comp to her. The second impressive thing about her game is her blind loyalty to Paul. On numerous occasions Josh tried to open her eyes to Paul’s manipulation, but Christmas immediately and without question shut him down, refusing to listen to anything negative about him. I’m not entirely sure where her devotion to Paul comes from, but I suppose she was right in the sense that he wanted to take her and Josh to the finals more than anyone else, otherwise they wouldn’t be where they are. It’s also hard to consider Christmas a worthy winner when during both of her HOH reigns she claimed to want to make “big moves,” but her idea of game-changing strategy was to just nominate and evict Mark, who everyone wanted out of the game anyway, and Jason, whose eviction was a plan orchestrated by Paul not her. There are also rumors that over the weekend Christmas was seen on the live feeds speaking to her “fans” that she’s considering telling Paul and Josh to take each other to the finals and she’ll happily take third place. What?! I thought she was a competitor!
Who do YOU guys think is the most worthy winner and why? Let me know in the comments!
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