‘Big Little Lies’ is Emmy frontrunner for Best Limited Series with 4/9 odds, but now its biggest threat is ‘The Night Of’

For most of the spring and summer, the Emmy for Best Limited Series has looked like a race between HBO’s seven-part mystery “Big Little Lies” and FX’s true Hollywood story “Feud: Bette and Joan,” but there has been a big shift since the Creative Arts Emmys on September 10. “Big Little Lies” remains the frontrunner, but “The Night Of” has now moved ahead of “Feud” as the program poised for a “Big” upset.

As of this writing “Big Little Lies” gets leading odds of 4/9, which translates to an impressive 70% chance of winning. It won three Creative Arts Awards last weekend: Best Movie/Mini Casting, Best Contemporary Costumes, and Best Music Supervision. The victory for Best Casting might be the most pivotal. The last five winners in that category went on to win the top movie or miniseries award: “Game Change” (2012), “Behind the Candelabra” (2013), “Fargo” (2014), “Olive Kitteridge” (2015), and “The People v. O.J. Simpson” (2016). And in the last two years every single winner of Best Casting, including dramas and comedies, has gone on to win its corresponding program award.

But “The Night Of” won more Creative Arts Awards (four), which indicates strong support across multiple branches of the TV academy: Best Cinematography (Movie/Mini), Best Picture Editing (Movie/Mini), Best Sound Editing (Movie/Mini), and Best Sound Mixing (Movie/Mini). In fact, “The Night Of” only lost one of its Creative Arts bids: Best Casting to “Big Little Lies.” So now the HBO crime drama is poised for a surprise win with 6/1 odds (15% chance of winning).

That leaves “Feud” in third with 15/2 odds (12% chance of winning). “Feud” has the most nominations of any limited series this year (18), but it only won twice at Creative Arts: Best Hairstyling (Movie/Mini) and Best Makeup (Movie/Mini, Non-Prosthetic). But it’s not out of this race by any means. It’s the brainchild of Ryan Murphy, who also shepherded “People v. O.J.” to nine Emmy wins last year including Best Limited Series.

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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