Emmy predictions update: ‘Black Mirror’ and ‘Sherlock’ get a boost, but where does that leave ‘Wizard of Lies’?

As more of our Emmy Experts chime in with their predictions, we’re getting a clearer picture of the race for Best TV Movie. “Black Mirror: San Junipero” has moved even farther ahead of its rivals and seems to be cementing its status as the frontrunner, but it’s not the only telefilm that got a boost. It looks like this race is still wide open.

Out of the 16 TV journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets, eight are currently predicting a win for “Black Mirror,” up from six last month: Joyce Eng (TV Guide), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly), Robert Rorke (New York Post), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Adnan Virk (ESPN), and Jarett Wieselman (Buzzfeed).

“San Junipero” doesn’t have a lot of widespread TV academy support, at least not as indicated by these nominations. It has just one other bid, Best Movie/Mini Writing, while the “Black Mirror” episode “Nosedive” earned an additional nom for its cinematography. Is that enough to indicate that it’s the favorite in the top category? In most years perhaps not, but none of this year’s TV Movie contenders have substantial nomination counts, and “Black Mirror” is the only one with a writing or a directing nom — it’s usually hard to win without a bid in at least one of those races.

Four Experts say “The Wizard of Lies” is out front, which is even with where it stood last month: Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone).

The HBO telefilm about the downfall of criminal financier Bernie Madoff has the prestige to win the category with acting nominations for lead actor Robert De Niro and supporting actress Michelle Pfeiffer, and the film is also nominated for Best Movie/Mini Casting — the only telefilm in that category — but given its high profile it performed short of expectations with no nominations for its writing, directing, or supporting actors like Alessandro Nivola and Emmy darling Hank Azaria.

Right behind with support from three Experts (up from one last month) is “Sherlock: The Lying Detective”: Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Ken Tucker (Yahoo), and Glenn Whipp (LA Times).

But perhaps there should be more Experts on the “Sherlock” bandwagon. It’s tied with “Wizard of Lies” as the most nominated film in the category with four. And while it has no writing or directing nominations, that didn’t stop it from upsetting to win Best TV Movie last year against a film with much broader academy support (“All the Way”).

Our last Expert, Kerr Lordygan (Rotten Tomatoes) is going out on a limb for “The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks.” You can never rule out Oprah Winfrey, who is nominated as a producer of the film and previously won this category in 2000 for “Tuesdays with Morrie.” But this is the only nomination for the film, which puts it at a disadvantage.

That leaves only “Christmas of Many Colors” without any Experts predicting it, but it may be the single most-watched nominee in the category with 11.53 million total viewers in its premiere on NBC last November, so in a category this divided you never know. What do you think?

Be sure to make your Emmy predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their TV shows and performers are faring in our Emmy odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on September 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2017 Emmys taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our TV forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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