Bryan Cranston will contend at the SAG Awards for Best TV Movie/Limited Series Actor for his reprisal of his Tony winning role as President Lyndon B. Johnson in “All the Way.” According to Gold Derby’s exclusive odds, as of this writing Cranston sits in last place with odds of 66/1. After losing at both the Emmys and Golden Globes Cranston might be tempted to skip the SAG Awards, but he should show up as I believe the odds are mistaken. Below are the four reasons why I’m predicting him to win at last.
1. Cranston is the most respected actor in the category
Courtney B. Vance (“The People v. O.J. Simpson”) might have bested Cranston at the Emmys and is also a Tony winner (“Lucky Guy,” 2013), and John Turturro is also an Emmy winner (Comedy Guest Actor for “Monk,” 2004), but this pales in comparison to what Cranston has accomplished. Cranston is a four-time Emmy winner for Best Drama Actor for “Breaking Bad” (2008-2010, 2014) and received an additional two trophies for Best Drama Series as a producer (2013-2014), and he has been nominated an additional six times for acting: Best Comedy Supporting Actor for “Malcolm in the Middle” (2002-2003 and 2006), twice more for Best Drama Actor for “Breaking Bad” (2012-2013), and Best Movie/Limited Actor for “All the Way” (2014).
Cranston has also won a Golden Globe for “Breaking Bad” (2014) and the aforementioned Tony for “All the Way” (2014). He was also nominated for his first Oscar last year for “Trumbo.” Most importantly, at the SAG Awards he has already won four times: Best Drama Actor (2013-2014) and Best TV Drama Ensemble (2014) for “Breaking Bad,” and Best Film Ensemble for “Argo” (2013), and he has an additional seven career nominations. When you compare him to his competition he is the most respected and well-liked actor in the group of nominees.
2. Cranston has already won when no one was expecting it
Back in 2013 Cranston was up for Best Drama Actor for “Breaking Bad.” While he was a three-time Emmy winner by then he had yet to win a SAG Award. The expected winner was Damian Lewis (“Homeland”), who had just bested Cranston at the Emmys, or the reigning two-time SAG Award winner (2011-2012) Steve Buscemi (“Boardwalk Empire”). But Cranston pulled an unexpected win, proving how well liked he is among his fellow actors. So a second upset would not be out of the question.
3. The 2014 precedent
Back in 2014 the Movie/Limited Series Actor race resulted in three different winners across the major awards: the Emmy went to Benedict Cumberbatch for “Sherlock,” the Golden Globe was won by Billy Bob Thornton for “Fargo” and the SAG Award went to Mark Ruffalo for “The Normal Heart.” This past year has proved to be equally competitive. Vance won the Emmy, and Tom Hiddleston (“The Night Manager”) just took the Globe, but Hiddleston was snubbed by SAG, so anyone could win this.
4. His rivals may split the vote
Cranston is up against two sets of co-stars: from “The People v. O.J. Simpson” Vance and Sterling K. Brown, and from “The Night Of” Riz Ahmed and Turturro. Usually, in order to take down a co-star in a popular vote one must be far and away the obvious choice. In the case of Vance vs. Brown, both won Emmys and gave breakthrough performances, so they may be similarly popular and siphon votes from each other. Ahmed and Turturro are similar as they are more or less equal co-leads in “The Night Of.” The four could easily split the vote, leaving Cranston victorious.
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